Armenian public opinion faces choice between European and Eurasian integration – Expert

YEREVAN, JANUARY 10, ARMENPRESS. The world is living in an extremely complex period of political and geopolitical transformations․ The South Caucasus region has traditionally been perceived as an unstable region full of conflicts since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now this instability is deepening due to the complex processes unfolding in the larger region. 

The Armenian society is in fact being offered to once again think about the choice between Eurasian integration and the increasingly deepening association with the European Union. Political parties supporting a Western orientation, successfully gathering over 50,000 signatures, are demanding the authorities to organize a referendum on Armenia’s accession to the European Union.

It is clear that the country's political leadership is favorable towards the issue of deepening and strengthening ties with the EU. However, they understand that relying solely on statements and positive intentions will not be enough. Why? Because the South Caucasus region, where Armenia is located, dictates a sequence of steps and actions that are not always in line with the growing European aspirations within Armenian society.

It is essential to remember that in 2013, when the attitude of the Armenian society towards European and Eurasian integration was being studied, it was found that 70% of our population believed that the processes of Eurasian and European integration could be combined. When asked which process the society would prefer if it were not possible to combine the two, the response showed that 70% would lean towards participating in the Eurasian integration process led by Russia. This very survey became the foundation for Armenia’s political leadership in the process of joining the Eurasian Economic Union. 

Nevertheless today, 12 years later, the moods within Armenian society have significantly changed. Following the 44-day war in 2020 and especially the displacement of the Armenian population from Nagorno-Karabakh and their forced migration to Armenia in September 2023, anti-Russian sentiments for various reasons have strengthened considerably within Armenian society.

Various sociological centers conducted surveys throughout 2024, which show that the majority of Armenian society is now oriented towards the United States and the European Union (specifically France).

Russia has experienced a significant decline in its position among Armenia’s allies. It is no longer viewed as the sole guarantor of Armenia’s security, sovereignty, and stability. With the warming and substantial strengthening of Russian-Azerbaijani and Russian-Turkish relations, fewer people in Armenia believe that Russia can protect Armenian statehood in an existential conflict with neighboring Turkey and Azerbaijan.

This is what is driving the Armenian authorities to take consistent steps towards normalizing relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan. The issue of signing a peace treaty with Azerbaijan is particularly emphasized, which would understandably open the way for also normalizing relations with Turkey, establishing diplomatic ties, and reopening transportation routes.

In Armenia, an internal political discussion is emerging about whether the country should continue to actively participate in the process of Eurasian economic integration. Following 2023 and 2024, when large Armenian businesses gained significant benefits from re-exporting gold and diamonds from Russia to the United Arab Emirates and Hong Kong (Greater China), external trade transactions are expected to show more modest figures in 2025.

Various authoritative international ranking organizations, such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Fitch Ratings, and the Eurasian Development Bank, forecast more modest trade and economic figures. 

This is where the views of skeptics may become stronger, who believe that Armenia's opportunities and performance in the Eurasian integration process will increasingly become more modest. Therefore, they argue, it is crucial to think about significantly diversifying Armenia’s foreign trade, as only in this way can the Armenian economy be truly developed.

In the 2013 sociological survey mentioned above, when asked who Armenia's development is associated with, the majority of respondents answered 'Russia'. When asked with whom they would like to develop ties in the fields of science and education, the majority of respondents answered 'the European Union'.

Today, ten years later, it becomes clear that, despite the fact that Armenia’s external trade volumes towards Eurasian directions have increased tenfold, the great expectations of the fourth generation industrial revolution never came true. According to experts from the older generation, the number of intellectual professionals in post-Soviet Armenia has decreased by more than 15 times. The ongoing emigration, declining birth rates, the increasing number of divorcing families, and other social problems indicate that the expectations of society from the Eurasian integration process have not been realized in many areas.

 It is known that while the older generation believes that the creation of a supranational structure similar to the Soviet Union could have been very beneficial for Armenia in the post-Soviet space, the younger generation absolutely does not think this way and, for the most part, directs its views towards the West.

The deepening of the global confrontation between the Collective West and Russia, the protracted Ukrainian crisis has raised new questions regarding the political outlook of the world. The countries of the South Caucasus understand that they could be drawn into new conflicts at any moment, which will be a response to and a consequence of the West-Russia global conflict. In Armenia today, as in Georgia 22 years ago, there is the belief that by becoming a member of the family of European nations and living by European laws, Armenia could feel safer in the South Caucasus region and neutralize (at least partially) the threat of Turkish-Azerbaijani economic and, subsequently, political expansion.

In any case, there is an internal understanding within Armenian society today that Armenia's membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) does not guarantee the country’s protection from external threats, simply because all member countries of that organization have much deeper and closer relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan than member Armenia. However, it is here that most Armenian political analysts currently advise not to take drastic steps towards leaving the CSTO, because it could increase hostility towards Armenia and further jeopardize the fragile regional balance. 

Lastly, over the past three years, the growing trade transactions within the framework of the Eurasian economic integration process have, in fact, overshadowed the trade volumes between Armenia and the European Union. It was enough for the copper concentrate extracted in Armenia to be exported not to Germany, Switzerland, or Bulgaria (as was the case before) but to China, and Armenia-Europe trade constituted an insignificant portion of Armenia's overall external trade picture.

So, it turns out that in recent years, when there has been more talk in Armenia about strengthening and deepening ties with the European Union, economic ties, in relative terms, have been decreasing and are increasingly being overshadowed by the country’s external economic policy towards the north or east.

What should be done? The simplest conclusion is that serious consideration should be given to increasing trade and economic cooperation with the European Union. But how? The polite willingness of Armenia's European political friends to improve the current situation has not yet yielded success. Simple solutions are not to be expected here. However, there may be complex solutions that, without dismantling Armenia's accumulated external economic potential, could guide the Armenian economy towards Europe—though it is difficult to say for now. The prescription for this has not yet been found, which makes the near-term outlook for strengthening political ties uncertain.

In Armenia it is commonly believed that studying the experience of Georgia is very important for increasing the European Union's attention towards the South Caucasus. In Georgia, it is expected that in 2030 the European Union will discuss the issue of Georgia’s membership. This may happen, but it may also not happen. If the question of Georgia’s membership is postponed indefinitely, it will significantly weaken the positions of those in Armenia who support European integration and will force them to consider a more active and radical participation in the further development and deepening of the Eurasian economic integration process.

In any case, it is very clear that today’s Armenian public opinion does not want to make a radical choice between the European Union (which means the collective West) and Russia, but continues to strive to combine these two, currently conflicting vectors.

We believe that the effectiveness of the course pursued by Armenia’s political leadership will be assessed in the near future based on the results of acting within this logic.

Anahit Safaryan
Independent researcher

Image: AP Images/European Union-EP