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YEREVAN, DECEMBER 30, ARMENPRESS. The South Caucasus region remains one of the most turbulent points in the world, and although there are no active hostilities, the conflicting interests of several countries, both from the region and beyond, are noticeable, according to political scientist Armen Vardanyan.
Armenpress asked Vardanyan about the current situation in the South Caucasus and the feasibility of the Armenian government’s Crossroads of Peace project.
“Now the most dramatic developments are taking place in Georgia, where there are non-stop protests, the authorities have appeared in an international isolation because the West doesn’t accept the results of the elections. It seems that this situation will exacerbate the already rapidly deteriorating political and economic crisis. Armenia and Azerbaijan are now calm, but this could be temporary. Escalations could happen in 2025,” Vardanyan said.
Vardanyan said there is some truth in Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili’s statement about Armenia’s prospect of development depending on the events in Georgia.
“If Armenia wants to join the EU in the future, and move towards Europe, then we would want the Georgian authorities to work in that direction too, as pro-EU, but if they cut their ties with the West, then Armenia’s European future will become unclear,” the political scientist said.
The signing of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2025 is unlikely, according to Vardanyan. Ever since that matter entered the agenda in 2021, there have been significant obstacles for the signing of the peace treaty because Azerbaijan has been trying to delay it for various reasons.
Vardanyan believes there are two reasons for this: Azerbaijan has vowed to Russia not to sign any document under the auspices of the West, and the second reason is that Azerbaijan views Armenia as the weak side and tries to obtain concessions.
Speaking about Crossroads of Peace project, Vardanyan said there are serious obstacles for its implementation, although the project is a fine initiative.
“Turkey and Azerbaijan are demanding a corridor from Armenia, under their terms, in turn Russia wants to control that section. None of that is in Armenia’s interests. In this situation Armenia ought to actively work with its allies to increase security. Our number one objective is the restoration of military balance, and Aliyev has been acting so tenaciously because that balance has been breached. If the balance is restored, the Azerbaijani leader will limit his statements and will think a few times before speaking,” Vardanyan said.