Expert says Armenia needs greater international recognition for Crossroads of Peace project

YEREVAN, 24 DECEMBER, ARMENPRESS. The situation in the South Caucasus has been marked by uncertainty throughout 2024. This uncertainty has persisted, and perhaps even increased to some extent, political analyst Armen Petrosyan told Armenpress.

He identified the reality of stagnation in the normalization of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, as well as the developments in Georgia, as the main reasons for the uncertainty.

"The two parallel situations in our region continue to create certain uncertainties and provide the basis for not only competition with acceptable tools within the South Caucasus but also geopolitical competition. The current situation in Georgia and the process of normalizing Armenian-Azerbaijani relations have geopolitical layers and elements of global competition, which, naturally, negatively affect and further increase the overall risk in our region," Petrosyan said.

In his opinion, Azerbaijan’s continued refusal to normalize relations with Armenia for various artificial reasons gives external actors an opportunity to exert influence on the process both within the region and beyond.

“It is noticeable that the Russian Federation has recently brought the November 9, 2020 format back to the political and propaganda agenda, and some activity is being observed from Turkey, which is also trying to prepare the ground for the normalization process.

 Along with putting forward Azerbaijan’s interests, Turkey seeks to influence regional processes. There are also certain expectations in the United States regarding the activities of the new administration,” the political analyst noted.

Addressing the question of the viability of the Armenian Prime Minister's "Crossroads of Peace" initiative in the context of ongoing processes, Petrosyan emphasized that the most risky issue in the South Caucasus is the process of unblocking regional routes, which is directly related to the aforementioned initiative.

"In addition to the process of normalizing Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, there are clear tendencies of a clash of regional and extra-regional interests regarding the unblocking of specific routes. Armenia expresses its willingness to implement the unblocking based on four well-known principles, while Azerbaijan seeks to implement the unblocking with a corridor logic. Turkey desires a process of unblocking that aligns with Azerbaijan's interests, aiming for a stable channel between itself and the Turkic world, in other words, an exit to the Central Asian countries."

Iran wants the corridor to pass through its territory, while Russia, for its part, wants the section of the road passing through Armenia to be under its control, and the United States seeks to ensure that there is no Russian control and that Iran's territory is not used," he said.

The political scientist added that, overall, there are characteristics of a de-blocking process. Azerbaijan calls it the "Zangezur Corridor," Iran refers to it as the Araks Corridor, and Armenia names it the "Crossroads of Peace." This means that as long as the most sensitive issue of de-blocking the roads is unresolved in our region, naturally, competition and the promotion of various projects remain on the agenda.

"Giving greater recognition to the "Crossroads of Peace" by Armenia, and gaining greater international approval, will naturally contribute to the goal of  advancing the de-blocking process in the interests of Armenia as much as possible," the political analyst concluded.