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The Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service believes that despite the preconditions created for a lasting ceasefire, the risk of resumption of military activities in the Gaza strip will likely persist, if Hamas does not take steps toward disarmament for an extended period, and as long as Israel rejects solutions offered by actors guaranteeing the ceasefire. A contributing factor in this regard will be internal developments in Israel in 2026, the Foreign Intelligence Service said in its 2026 External Security Risks report published exclusively by Armenpress.
The tensions in Israel-Lebanon and Israel-Syria relations in 2026 will almost certainly persist. Israel will continue to view internal developments in Syria and Lebanon as conditions for decreasing the tensions with the two countries and normalizing relations. Israel will thereby consolidate the strategy of keeping the conflicts outside of its borders and imposing solutions while reasoning it by the need to ensure its own security. It is likely that the unstable situation in Syria will continue. Establishing control over the entire territory of the country, limiting the presence of external powers, reinvigorating the economy, and building pragmatic relations with neighbors will remain the main challenges of Syria’s interim government. The success of addressing these challenges will depend not only on the readiness and ability of Syria’s ethnic and religious minorities to support unity, but also on the approaches of other state actors that perceive their own regional security issues as linked to developments in Syria. It is unlikely that the efforts of Lebanon’s government to ensure monopoly over the military will be effective in 2026, which, in turn, will increase the likelihood of continued operations by Israel in Lebanon,” the agency said.