Azerbaijan named one of biggest arms importers in the world: Analyst comments on Baku’s potential goals

Azerbaijan is the 16th biggest arms importer in the world, according to the 2024 analysis of the Centre for Analysis of World Arms Trade (CAWAT), a research organization based in Moscow. 

In 2024, Azerbaijan acquired more than $2,2 billion in arms.

The data shows that Azerbaijan itself is engaged in an intensive rearmament effort, contrary to its false allegations that Armenia is the one that is preparing for war and buying weapons.

Armenia has numerously denied the Azeri accusations of preparing for war and has stated that it is acquiring weaponry exclusively for defensive purposes as part of military reforms. But Azerbaijan, nonetheless, has been trying to manipulate the issue in its fake news campaigns.

Davit Harutyunov, a military-political analyst, told Armenpress that the information about Azerbaijan’s rearmament can be found in open sources, but the volumes, goals and supervision are a different topic.

“The information about Azerbaijan’s rearmament is available in open sources too, moreover Azerbaijan itself has been announcing about some of its procurements of arms,” Harutyunov said. “By doing so, Azerbaijan pursues several goals. The statements made by high-ranking officials make clear that Azerbaijan views arms acquisition as a significant resource, with which it tries to resolve political issues, among others, in the modern world.”

The second goal, according to the expert, is that Azerbaijan wants to maximally deepen the balance of power compared with Armenia in its favor, which happened after the 2020 war.

Although Baku is constantly claiming that it has a powerful military, they still have a perception that Armenia, in some conditions, could restore the balance, and in order to not allow this, Azerbaijan has been engaged in a rapid rearmament, according to the analyst.

“And we can’t rule out that the third goal of Azerbaijan is to prepare for a new aggression by increasing the volume of arms,” Harutyunov added.

He expressed regret that international arms control mechanisms are ineffective.

In addition, Armenia has proposed to Azerbaijan to create a joint arms control mechanism, but Baku refused.

He said that the treaty on conventional arms was violated by Azerbaijan in the past also. But the treaty, even when it was fully functioning, did not envisage clear mechanisms for control or verification, neither did it provide for accountability for violations. “Azerbaijan has always violated the terms of that treaty and the terms of its restrictions," Harutyunov said. 

The treaty, known as the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, puts limits on key categories of conventional military equipment in Europe (from the Atlantic to the Urals) and mandated the destruction of excess weaponry.

On 7 November 2023, Russia withdrew from the treaty, and in response the United States and its NATO allies suspended their participation in the treaty. 

According to Harutyunov, the fact that the South Caucasus region is heavily militarized has to do with the calculation of the population and armaments combination. 

But there are many other heavily militarized regions, such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia, Harutyunov said.

He said Azerbaijan is mostly combining Russian heavy weaponry with drones bought from Israel and Turkiye. 

Harutyunov also touched upon the Section 907 of the United States Freedom Support Act which bans any kind of direct United States aid to the Azerbaijani government. On October 24, 2001, the Senate adopted an amendment to the Act that would provide the US President with the ability to waive Section 907. They have done so since then. On November 15, 2023, the US Senate adopted a bill suspending all military aid to Azerbaijan by repealing the Freedom Support Act Section 907 waiver authority for the Administration with respect to assistance to Azerbaijan for fiscal years 2024 or 2025.

Harutyunov said that years ago, after 9/11, the US was carrying out its Afghan transit through the territory of Azerbaijan by invoking the Section 907 waiver. 

But even the waiver is not grounds to believe that Azerbaijan would buy large amounts of weapons from the US because American weapons are expensive, Harutyunov said.

Full interview available in Armenian.