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YEREVAN, DECEMBER 2, ARMENPRESS. "It is very likely for the Prime Minister of Turkey to go to Armenia,lay a wreath on the Memorial of the Armenian genocide and apologize to the Armenians,” a well-known Turkish journalist and publicist Orhan Kemal Cengiz who recognized the Armenian Genocides begins his article with these words in the Arabic Al-Monitor adding that this prediction is not based on information or reports. It's the accusation of the Turkish nationalists against Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “Erdogan has done so many things to upset us,don’t be surprised if he apologizes to the Armenians,” a nationalist says.
Erdogan’strip to Diyarbakir his use of the word "Kurdistan"and admitting openly that his government is negotiating with Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)leader Abdullah Ocalan, are allbreaking important taboos for Turkey.Can Erdogan break a similar taboo on the issue of the Armenian genocide?
What the non-Muslims have suffered in Turkey has rarely been on the prime minister's agenda.He hasn’t repeatedhis2009 remarksthat surprised everyone: "Those with different ethnic identities were expelled from our country. This,in fact, was the consequence of a fascist approach."No doubt that remark was alluding to the 1915 tragedy and other unfortunate events inTurkey’s history.
Erdogan now frequently describes Turkey as a mosaic made up of diverse ethnic identities. We often hear him mention Arabs, Kurds, Turks, Circassiansand the Laz,but when describing this mosaic Erdogan never mentions Turkey’s long-standing non-Muslims such asArmenians, Greeks, Jews and Syriacs.
In my various articles forAl-Monitor, I havewritten that the Armenian genocide isno longera taboo subject in Turkey, that new books on the subjectare coming out daily and that there is a free, tolerant mediaenvironment forthesubject. Civil society now remembers the victims of the Armenian genocide in observances on April 24. As the 100-year anniversaryof the genocide approaches, civil society is debating what to do in 2015 and is preparingaction plans to explain the genocide.
All these observances andpublicationsindicate that the approach of the Turkish government to the issue has somewhat changed. Otherwise, the police would not have protected activists onApril 24 from protesting extremist, nationalist groups.
But the freedom the government allows to civil society and intellectuals to debate and observe the genocide doesn’t mean a change to Turkey's official position on 1915.Reports leakedto the media about the preparations for 2015 by the government indicate thatformer official policies are going to prevail.
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, in a visit to Switzerland at the end of October, conveyed to Swiss authoritiesTurkey’s sensitivity about a statue Armenians want to erect in Geneva. From these "sensitivities," we can conclude that there hasn't been an iota of change in Turkey’s official position.
From the leaked reports,we also understand that Davutogluasked Switzerland to mediate between Turkey and Armenia.According to Foreign Ministry sources, if Armenia promises to withdraw from five of seven Azeri plots it is holding in Karabakh region, Turkey wouldbe ready to open the Armenian border.
Therecent dialoguebetween the foreign minister and members of the parliamentary foreign affairs committee suggeststhat there are actually preparations to open the border.When an MP from Igdir at the Armenian border said he wasaware of some work atthe closed border crossing, Davutoglu said: "We have such work going on. If we can persuade Azerbaijan, we can make a surprise. We are working on the border crossing."
Other aspects of Turkey’s preparations for 2015 can be detected fromremarks of the government spokesman Bulent Arinc: "2015 is the 100thyear of both the Dardanelles and the claims of Armenian genocide. We are working seriously. There is work on symposiums, conferences, panels, publications and documentaries. But we are also engaged in very special public diplomacy activities that could affect the entire world."
We also know that leading members of the government and opposition have met in the parliament to discussTurkey’s 2015 strategy. Sadly, all these strategies don’t appear to be anything else but mere repetition of Turkey’s routine approaches.
The Turkish Historical Society is also preparing for 2015. Mehmet Metin Hulagu, president of the society, said it is working on a complete works ofTurkey-Armenian relations in preparation for 2015.
When we put all these preparations and views of government officials together, we can predict that Turkey’s defensive attitude based on denials is not going to change in 2015. Though theForeign Ministry is striving to improve Turkey’s image related tothe Armenian issue with gestures such as opening the border, it also seems determinedto combat the Armenians’ campaign for 2015.
In short, if Erdogan doesn’t turn the world upside down with a last-minute surprise, we are likely to see in 2015 a more refined and sophisticated version of Turkey’s denial policy of the past century.