Expert says Gulf countries will try to persuade U.S., Iran to implement Islamabad Memorandum

Iranian studies expert Nver Davtyan believes that it is unlikely that new activity will be observed in the Iranian-American conflict before the midterm elections scheduled in the United States.

He does not rule out that there will be some positive messages regarding a temporary settlement.

In an interview with Armenpress, Davtyan addressed the current phase of the conflict, the negotiations held in New York, and the latest sanctions imposed on the Iranian side.

“The most important event in the current phase of the settlement of the Iranian-American conflict was the seven-point proposal of the Iranian side, conveyed to the American side within the framework of the UN General Assembly. The preconditions, the main one of which concerns the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, are built on the basis of the Islamabad Agreement signed between the United States and Iran. As far as is known, the American side has not yet agreed to these preconditions following the brief meeting in New York. As for the wartime situation, all manifestations of hybrid warfare, except for active military operations, are still present in the propaganda, economic, political, legal and other spheres,” Davtyan said.

According to his observation, energy issues and the topic of sanctions are also relevant. According to the Iranian studies expert, noteworthy was the package of sanctions recently imposed by the United States, under which the American side urged countries in the Middle East region not to accept Iranian flights. However, not all countries intend to do so because they are guided by strategic, political, economic or other interests in maintaining bilateral relations with Iran.

According to Davtyan, the Iranian-American conflict may also have various manifestations of influence on the countries of the region going forward, as each state has its own level of relations with Iran. There are countries with which Iran develops strategic and security ties, and with some others, economic ties.

“For example, flights to Iraq had not been operated for a long time, and the pressure in that Arab country was quite strong, but nevertheless, it was predictable that flights would be restored either to Baghdad or to Najaf. In the Afghan direction, the Taliban have stated that flights with Iran will not be interrupted. Pakistan has also adopted such an approach. There are reports that flights to Tajikistan have even been maintained via the Turkmen route. Flights to Armenia and Türkiye are also continuing. Meanwhile, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency has extended its warning until November 16, which means that this remains a risk zone,” he said.

Davtyan added that despite the maritime blockade, the Iranian railway is operating under heavy load. The volume of rail transportation to China through Central Asia has increased approximately tenfold. In addition, overland road freight transportation has also increased. Of course, there are problems both in financial and economic terms and in terms of logistics, but the situation is not critical.

Addressing the question of what lessons the Gulf countries have learned from the Iranian-American conflict, the Iranian studies expert emphasized that the latest noteworthy event in this regard was the visit of the Israeli Prime Minister to the UAE. According to him, certain attempts are presumed to be underway to inspire confidence in the countries of the region, form some kind of coalition, or carry out joint actions, but nevertheless, in addition to political willingness, the Gulf states must have appropriate military resources.

“For example, during the hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Yemen, it became clearly apparent that the Saudi army was unable to fulfill the tasks assigned to it. Under such conditions, when one of the leading countries in the region is in such a situation, would the others dare to enter into a confrontation with Iran? It is unequivocal that they should avoid this and try to persuade the United States and Iran to find common ground, implement the Islamabad Memorandum, or accept the seven-point proposal presented by Iran. Pakistan and Türkiye are demonstrating more active mediation initiatives so that the crisis does not deepen further,” Davtyan said.

Asked whether the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed for a long time, the Iranian studies expert stressed that this will depend on how the United States reacts to or responds to the Iranian side's proposal.

“We are dealing with another reality: previously, under conditions of free navigation through the strait, a certain number of ships were sailing. At present, although movement is severely limited, traffic is not completely closed. For countries opposing Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, but there is also an alternative option agreed between Iran and Oman, which envisages a new route, although Iranian control there is also predominant. How long the current situation will persist depends on developments in the political conjuncture,” the Iranian studies expert concluded.