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The APRI Armenia analytical center organized a press conference entitled “One Year After the Washington Summit: What Do We Have Today and What Should We Expect?” to summarize the developments that have taken place in the Armenian-Azerbaijani and Armenian-Türkiye normalization processes, as well as in Armenian-American relations, following the Washington Summit, and their impact on regional stability and prosperity.
Benjamin Poghosyan, Senior Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia analytical center, singled out two factors in assessing the impact of the documents adopted on August 8, 2025.
“The first factor has a geopolitical dimension, the main point of which is the significant reduction in the likelihood of a possible new escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, more specifically, the likelihood of military aggression by Azerbaijan against Armenia. We all remember how tense the situation was, particularly in the first months of 2025, especially after the text of the peace agreement had been agreed upon, when Azerbaijan was spreading false reports almost every day about ceasefire violations by Armenia, and Azerbaijani media, including outlets linked to state institutions, were stating that Azerbaijan had the right to resort to retaliatory actions. After August 8, 2025, that threat decreased significantly and, as of now, is almost close to zero and, most likely, will remain so until the end of President Trump’s term in office,” Poghosyan said.
He highlighted that the documents also significantly advanced bilateral Armenian-American relations. In 2025, three memoranda of understanding were signed in various fields, including cooperation in digital technologies and artificial intelligence, while in May 2026, an agreement on comprehensive bilateral strategic cooperation was signed, replacing the document signed one year earlier, at the beginning of January.
“We now see that the aforementioned memoranda are not only on paper but are also producing certain results. Just three days ago, the opening of the first major artificial intelligence facility took place in Armenia, which was directly facilitated by the memoranda signed previously,” Poghosyan said, referring to the opening of the Firebird AI data center.
Sergey Melkonyan, a Research Fellow at the APRI Armenia analytical center, in turn, said that they had presented a relevant report on the TRIPP project, focusing on its geopolitical and economic components.
“We came to the conclusion that TRIPP is primarily a geopolitical project rather than an economic one. We also calculated how much money Armenia could earn if there were comprehensive unblocking in the South Caucasus, and what would change in purely financial terms if only TRIPP were implemented. In the latter case, Armenia’s profit would be approximately $23 million annually, which is not a large amount. Whereas if there were comprehensive unblocking, the profit could reach up to $388 million annually,” Melkonyan said.
He added that for Armenia, access to the outside world, including the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea, is extremely important, especially when diversification is being discussed.
“In that case, all railway connections should be opened. According to the Washington document, if TRIPP is implemented, all routes must necessarily be operational for this to happen. In this regard, we still do not see serious political decisions. If all sides are interested in the prospect of peace, they should focus not only on TRIPP. There is also a third component, according to which a scenario is possible in which, in the context of unblocking, only TRIPP is implemented while the other routes are not opened, or, if they are opened, it is possible to close them unilaterally. In the case of TRIPP, there is no such option, and therefore a de facto new format of blockade of Armenia could be legitimized, in which only TRIPP operates while the other routes remain closed,” Melkonyan noted.
Addressing the existing challenges, Poghosyan said that Azerbaijan is delaying the signing of the peace agreement in order to prevent the normalization of Armenian-Türkiye relations, because messages are continuously being sent from Azerbaijan to Türkiye according to which the full normalization of Armenian-Türkiye relations, including the opening of the land border and the launch of the railway, can take place exclusively after the signing of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement.
“At APRI Armenia, we call this process a ‘vicious circle,’ and this term has already begun to be used in Azerbaijani and Türkiye expert circles. On the one hand, Azerbaijan is doing everything to avoid signing the peace agreement; on the other hand, it is doing everything to prevent the normalization of Armenian-Türkiye relations without the signing of the peace agreement. For now, it is impossible to speak of institutionalized peace as long as the peace agreement has not been signed. External engagement is necessary to break the ‘vicious circle.’ There is a window of opportunity that the United States can use by becoming more actively involved in regional processes in order to break that ‘vicious circle.’ The United States should take steps so that the normalization of Armenian-Türkiye relations becomes an integral part of US-Türkiye relations,” Poghosyan noted.
Speaking about the problematic issue related to the Russian concession management of the Armenian railways, Poghosyan emphasized that, in order to determine whether this concession is an obstacle to unblocking, there must first be clear guarantees that the Armenia-Türkiye and Armenia-Nakhchivan borders will be opened.
“As long as those decisions do not exist, it is difficult to make clear assertions. At least in the presence of decisions concerning the opening of the borders, it would be possible to speak of the Russian concession potentially being an obstacle for Armenia on its path to becoming a component of the Middle Corridor. The discussions currently are more political than practical in nature,” Poghosyan said.
The researchers of the APRI Armenia analytical center argued that, in the event of comprehensive unblocking in the South Caucasus, the railway connecting Armenia to Iran through the territory of Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan would also be put into operation, in which case Armenia would also become a component of the North-South transit corridor; for this, hostilities in Iran would also need to cease.