Political scientist explains real reason behind tensions in Russian-Azerbaijani relations

Over the years, a military-political and philosophical trend has taken shape within the Russian elite, viewing the South Caucasus through a particular lens: when choosing between Armenia and Azerbaijan, preference was often given to Azerbaijan, which is larger in territory and richer in resources. As a result, in many cases, Russia refrained from responding harshly to Azerbaijan's actions.However, as political scientist Beniamin Matevosyan explains, theoretical assumptions are one thing; the realities on the ground are another, especially in light of the recent deterioration in Russian-Azerbaijani relations.

According to Matevosyan, for more than 250 years, Russia has constructed a security system around its southern borders, with different elements in various regions. At the core of this system were states whose political elites remained loyal to the Russian central government.

"There was a perception that by favoring Azerbaijan, Russia could integrate a significant part of the Turkic world into the Eurasian family through Azerbaijan. But what was believed to be a pro-Russian Azerbaijan has instead acted in its own interests, managing to resolve issues of vital importance to itself. The calculation that Azerbaijan would become a loyal ally to Russia has failed," he said.

Matevosyan argues that Azerbaijan has long ceased to be a strategic ally of Russia, and has instead become a proxy of Great Britain and Turkey used at different times against various countries. "In 2020, it was used against Armenia, and during the recent 12-day war, against Iran," he noted.

He emphasized the importance of distinguishing between the real cause and the trigger of the current deterioration in Russian-Azerbaijani relations. According to him, the trigger was the Russian strikes on Ukraine’s Kremenchuk oil refinery, one of Azerbaijan’s sources of income, which was essentially destroyed. Russia had long known that the refinery was operated by Azerbaijanis, but for certain reasons, chose to strike it anyway.

This event set off a chain reaction: the arrest of Russian journalists in Azerbaijan, and actions targeting Azerbaijani ethnic criminal groups within Russia. According to Matevosyan, Russian authorities have now even begun arresting officials who helped establish and expand these Azerbaijani criminal networks.

“Russia has not only started to observe these developments but also understands their core. Though somewhat late, it is now trying to take preventive measures to ensure that the Azerbaijani proxy is not used against it. Being a large and powerful state, Russia has more leeway to make mistakes. Even if it loses the entire South Caucasus, it does not mean that Moscow will fall immediately. Many players are involvedhere: different wings within the Russian elite, Great Britain, the U.S., Turkey, and Iran,” he said.

Matevosyan noted that Russia has begun targeting Azerbaijani networks within its own territory because it realizes that if it takes harsher measures against Azerbaijan itself, these groups could be used to destabilize the situation inside Russia.

"Instead of seeking to normalize relations with Russia, Azerbaijan is moving toward further escalation while simultaneously deepening cooperation with Ukraine and providing assistance to Kyiv," he argued.

“The Ukrainian authorities have proposed that Azerbaijan store its gas in Ukrainian underground storage facilities. If this happens, Russia may target those facilities as well, hitting Azerbaijan’s energy system, which would further increase tensions,” Matevosyan warned.

Commenting on the Turkish factor and its role in Russian-Azerbaijani relations, he noted that in the event of a sharp confrontation, Turkey has no alternative but to defend its own interests.

"Given Turkish policy, it is highly likely that Ankara might 'sell out' Azerbaijan by demanding or extracting concessions from Russia in return. The negotiating space is quite broad. While the idea of “one nation, two states” defines Turkish-Azerbaijani relations, we must remember that Turkey’s own interests are always paramount. It may even engage in bargaining at Azerbaijan’s expense in the hope of gaining something in return," Matevosyan concluded.