Sometimes Azerbaijan has greater influence on Turkey than vice versa-analyst weighs in on Baku's tactics against Armenia
YEREVAN, JUNE 16, ARMENPRESS. The United States seeks to achieve the signing of any document between Armenia and Azerbaijan, political analyst Tigran Grigoryan told ARMENPRESS when asked about expectations from the upcoming foreign ministerial in Washington D.C.
The Armenia-Azerbaijan foreign ministerial in the U.S. capital was supposed to take place earlier but was postponed by Baku.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on June 16 that the meeting would take place “soon”.
According to Grigoryan, now Armenia and Azerbaijan are returning to the negotiations agenda at the active mediation of the United States to negotiate around the text of the possible peace treaty.
The political analyst described Washington as a platform where rather intensive talks are proceeding with the purpose of bringing the stances of the parties closer to each other, especially around key issues.
“In case of Azerbaijan, their conduct on participating in the talks on one hand and exerting pressure, breaching the ceasefire and putting forward some ultimatums to Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh on the other hand has become usual," the expert said, referring to the regular cross-border shootings by the Azerbaijani forces.
Azerbaijan is attempting to use dividends gained through military pressure in the negotiations process. Naturally, in such conditions it is difficult to talk about comprehensive solutions or constructive processes, and as a result of this all there could be a situation when some solutions would simply be forced upon Armenia,” Grigoryan warned.
Mediators have an important role, although Brussels and Washington avoid assuming greater responsibility, he added.
Expecting comprehensive solutions that could be the basis for long-term peace in the region would be senseless without pressure by mediators on Azerbaijan, Grigoryan said.
Asked to comment on debates whether the possible peace treaty should be signed before or after the delimitation and demarcation process, Grigoryan said the current phase of talks is focused on the signing of a framework agreement. “A document with a general text will be signed, which will be followed by more concrete processes. It’s clear that delimitation and demarcation will be carried out later because these processes usually last very long. Even the signing of a framework agreement contains certain risks, because there is no guarantee that Azerbaijan won’t continue applying force against Armenia in an attempt to regularly coerce some concessions. If Azerbaijan isn’t pulling back its forces from the territory of Armenia now, then it will highly likely not do so after the signing of the treaty as well,” Grigoryan said.
Asked whether the U.S. could apply more efficient levers against Azerbaijan’s sponsor Turkey, in order to bring it back to the constructive arena, Grigoryan said that sometimes Azerbaijan has greater influence on Turkey than vice versa.
“The same goes for the U.S.-Turkey strategic partnership. Erdogan is engaged in a rather independent policy, he has left the NATO influence circle, is pragmatically cooperating with Russia, thus the U.S. influence factor shouldn’t be overestimated. The problem is more Baku than Ankara, and if pressure is to be applied than it should undoubtedly be done so upon Baku in order for it to abandon its maximalist positions and agree to compromised solutions,” Grigoryan concluded.