Political scientist: Azerbaijan’s behavior doesn’t inspire optimism

YEREVAN, JUNE 22, ARMENPRESS. In an interview with “Armenpress”, political scientist Tigran Abrahamyan, speaking about Sargsyan-Putin-Aliyev meeting in St. Petersburg, said small steps were taken in Vienna and St. Petersburg which still leave the possibility of returning Azerbaijan to the negotiation process.

-What will you say about Sargsyan-Putin-Aliyev meeting? Are there any positive achievements?

-First of all, we should note that St. Petersburg meeting was the logical continuation of the Vienna meeting. We can highlight the issue of increasing the number of international observers in the conflict zone which was being widely discussed recently, but Azerbaijan did not accept this proposal in no way. The issue of the installation of investigation mechanisms is also a matter of discussion to which Azerbaijan agreed in Vienna, however, tries with every possible measures to avoid from it.

These two proposals are correlated and they must be jointly implemented. However, at this moment we still talk about statements that still remain in the papers and their implementation is uncertain taking into account Azerbaijan’s unstable behavior and the frequent violations of the agreements.

In fact, small steps were taken in Vienna and St. Petersburg which still leave the possibility of returning Azerbaijan to the negotiation process. In general, I will try to avoid from making assessments since Azerbaijan’s behavior doesn’t inspire optimism.

-There was a talk on the installation of investigation mechanisms, the increase of the scope of responsibilities of the team of the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office. Taking into account that Azerbaijan previously demonstrated unconstructive stance, what are the guarantees that this time also the process will not fail?

-There are no guarantees that the agreements will be implemented since, unfortunately, starting from 1994 we witnessed Azerbaijani attempts to fail the negotiation process. The increase of the number of international observers and the installation of investigation mechanisms are only restraining factors, however, they do not guarantee the regular steps of the process. These are the minimum steps that are aimed at establishing trust between the sides which became even more complicated after the April events.

-How would you comment on Azerbaijan’s holding of military exercises these days? What was the aim of this?

-In general, holding such exercises is undesirable, especially at such a delicate stage and just before the Presidents’ meeting. Two months have passed after the April events, yes, the situation in the contact line was significantly changed, however, the existence of such huge amount of military equipment and the human resource 15-20 km from the frontline creates an additional tension.

Before the Presidents’ meeting Azerbaijan with such large-scale military exercises was trying to solve at least one problem and putting pressure on Armenia, as well as the mediators’ efforts aimed at solving peacefully the conflict.