5 minute read
A prominent Armenian scholar believes that the growing tensions between Türkiye and Israel have geopolitical implications, as the United States is preparing to reduce its presence in the Middle East, while the two influential regional powers are competing to fill the resulting vacuum.
In an interview with Armenpress, Ruben Safrastyan, a Turkologist and academician, spoke in detail about the strained relations between Türkiye and Israel and addressed whether the United States has managed to maintain a balanced approach in dealing with its two allies in this context.
“Since the aforementioned geopolitical struggle is, one way or another, connected to the United States, a kind of triangle has emerged. Time will show to what extent the United States will be able to resolve, or at least ease, the conflict between these two centers of power, although at this stage Washington is not making significant efforts in that direction. On the other hand, the confrontation between Türkiye and Israel has not yet reached a critical stage, despite the fact that such a possibility is gradually becoming more likely,” Safrastyan said.
Safrastyan also referred to the past conflict between Türkiye and Greece, when the United States failed to resolve the serious disagreements between its two allies, eventually leading to direct military clashes.
“At present, the Turkish-Israeli confrontation has certainly not escalated to the same level of intensity as the conflict that once occurred between Türkiye and Greece. The United States is still able to keep this confrontation within manageable limits, while the possibility of further escalation is a separate matter. For example, the conflict could intensify in Syria, where both Türkiye and Israel have vital interests. Therefore, it is possible that these disagreements could develop into military clashes, especially since various analytical circles around the world do not rule out such a scenario,” the expert said.
According to the scholar, although the intense geopolitical rivalry continues, there are also factors suggesting that the confrontation may not reach a critical stage.
“For example, oil is transported to Türkiye via the Baku–Ceyhan pipeline and from there is shipped to Israel. Therefore, regardless of the tensions between Türkiye and Israel, the two countries have not severed their ties. This factor should also be taken into account. The United States can therefore still keep the disagreements between its two allies within manageable limits,” he said.
Addressing the US–Türkiye F-35 fighter jet deal, which has become a particularly contentious issue for Israel, as well as the objections raised by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during his recent meeting with US President Donald Trump, Safrastyan said that the deal between Washington and Ankara is unlikely to materialize, as there are conflicting views on the issue within the US political establishment.
“Trump is right that the key issue here is not the Israeli side’s opinion, but rather the position of the United States and the dynamics among the circles and groups shaping domestic policy. However, I believe this deal will not come to fruition because it is linked to the Russian S-400 air defense systems, which Türkiye purchased from Russia and has so far been unable to dispose of. There is a clear demand that Türkiye must first get rid of these systems, after which the purchase of F-35 aircraft could become more realistic,” Safrastyan said.
He added that Türkiye had even held talks with North Korea on selling the S-400 systems to Pyongyang or reselling them to Russia, although the United States opposes the systems being transferred back to Russia.
“Therefore, this deal involves unresolved contradictions that have yet to be overcome,” Safrastyan concluded.