Military escalation in 2026 ‘highly unlikely’ after Washington accords, says Armenian foreign intelligence service

As a result of the Washington agreements of August 8, 2025, military escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2026 has become highly unlikely, while the likelihood of the institutionalization of peace has increased, the Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service said.

In its 2026 External Security Risks report, published exclusively by Armenpress, the agency said that the narratives and actions promoted by Azerbaijan on the so-called “western Azerbaijan” and the “return of western Azerbaijanis” create risks.

“As a result of intensive bilateral high-level negotiations in 2025, as well as the Washington Declaration and the initialing of the Agreement on Establishment of Peace and Inter-State Relations between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan, achieved through the active involvement of the President of the United States Donald J. Trump, the likelihood of a military escalation has significantly decreased, while the likelihood of a peaceful resolution has increased. Based on a thorough analysis of these and parallel processes, we assess a military escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, motivated by a military-political objective, as highly unlikely in 2026. We also assess local actions or incidents not driven by military-political objectives as unlikely.    In 2026, it is highly likely that progress will be achieved in the delimitation and demarcation process, bilateral trade and economic initiatives, dialogue between the two societies, humanitarian, and other issues. With regard to the unblocking of regional infrastructures as well, progress will highly likely be reached in ongoing processes, and the bilateral connectivity initiatives with Armenia’s neighbors will boost bigger regional economic projects. At the same time, risks of malign activities against these processes by states that pursue the goal of maintaining and expanding their influence in the region will increase. The consistent use of harmful narratives and terms questioning Armenia’s sovereignty and threatening the implementation of connectivity projects by Azerbaijan and other actors will only contribute to the materialization of these risks,” the Foreign Intelligence Service said in its report.

“The analysis of the Service suggests that the state-promoted narratives and parallel activities related to the so-called “western Azerbaijan” and the “return of western Azerbaijanis” are a risk factor that has a significant negative impact on peacebuilding in the long term. The intelligence collected by the Service indicates that Azerbaijan has not only reduced, but has significantly increased this propaganda since the Washington Declaration, which entails substantial risks for regional stability, security, and long-term peace.
 In 2026, a priority task for the Service will be the continuous assessment of the true intention behind the state policy of promoting the “return of western Azerbaijanis”. In particular, it needs to be assessed whether by using these narratives as a new national ideology Azerbaijan intends to transport the conflict into the territory of Armenia in some new form or to use it as a tool for foreign policy bargaining and, more precisely, as a way to offset the issue of the return of Karabakh Armenians,” it added.

Moreover, the Service said it observed an increase in Azerbaijan’s military expenditure. “We assess this as a risk factor not only due to the net increase of military spending, but also the fact that the growth rate of military expenditure substantially exceeds that of spending on other sectors and, in many cases, highly likely, occurs at their expense.”