Iranian scholar says Armenia stands to gain from South Caucasus connectivity projects

Iranian expert on South Caucasus affairs Ehsan Movahedian said that lifting the blockade on communication routes in the South Caucasus would allow Armenia to use the infrastructural capacities of neighboring countries to access Europe, thereby creating more revenue and economic opportunities for Armenia.

In an interview with Armenpress, Movahedian — who holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from ATU in Tehran — discussed the prospects of unblocking connectivity in the region, particularly in the context of the expected implementation of TRIPP – the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, a connectivity project in Armenia envisaged under the U.S.-brokered Armenian–Azerbaijani joint declaration signed in Washington, D.C. The project is expected to unlock strategic economic opportunities, creating long-term benefits by promoting infrastructure investment and enhancing regional connectivity.

“The removal of the blockade on communication routes in the South Caucasus will allow Armenia to use the infrastructural capacities of neighboring countries to access Europe. This is gratifying, as it will create revenue and economic opportunities for Armenia,” Movahedian said.

The expert, however, noted that the technical details of the project envisaged by the agreement remain unknown and uncertain, which raises concerns among some of Armenia’s neighbors.

“On the one hand, Iran and Russia are concerned that the United States will gain access to customs data and acquire new levers of pressure. On the other hand, Armenia must preserve the diversity of its economic, trade, and transit connections and avoid becoming overly dependent on the East–West corridor,” he said, emphasizing that there is a risk the United States may seek to shift all vital supplies for Armenia to East–West corridor routes, thereby making Armenia dependent on that corridor and pressuring its government into making decisions against Iran and Russia.

According to him, the safest and most reliable transit route for Armenia will always be the North–South corridor, which passes through Iran, since, in his view, Armenia should nevertheless pursue a cautious policy toward Türkiye and Azerbaijan.

Despite these concerns voiced by the Iranian side, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has repeatedly stated that the connectivity projects are not directed against anyone and that all countries in the region stand to benefit from them.