4 minute read
Russia and Azerbaijan are guided by their own interests and are trying to present the situation following the crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane in a way that aligns with their interests.
Azerbaijan is using this incident to strengthen its position, aiming to leverage it as a means of pressure in future negotiations with Russia, political scientist Norayr Dunamalyan said in an interview with Armenpress, addressing the recent tensions in Russia-Azerbaijan relations.
"We must take into account that Russia is currently more dependent on Azerbaijan and Turkey, as the supply of Russian gas and oil to European countries is largely conducted through their territories. Azerbaijan believes that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will eventually come to an end or be frozen. Therefore, they are trying to create a counterbalance for themselves—while being dependent on Russia, they also seek to make Russia dependent on them," Dunamalyan explained.
According to the political scientist, official Baku’s behavior is quite aggressive, as reflected in both statements and the information field. As a result, the wave of reactions in Azerbaijan is directed against Russia, aiming to extract certain compromises.
"The Turkish factor is always present in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy, and it is essential to consider the interconnectedness of various issues. In this context, the transit of energy resources plays a crucial role. Consequently, in many matters, including Russian-Azerbaijani relations, Azerbaijan directly follows the lead of its 'big brother,' Turkey.
There is also a geopolitical aspect: the change of power in Syria has weakened Russia's position in the Middle East. This could also have an impact on the South Caucasus, where Russia is now operating from a weaker position than a few months ago," he elaborated.
Dunamalyan noted that both Azerbaijan and Turkey are seeking concessions from Russia, while Russia is trying to resist in every possible way, though its leverage in this matter has already diminished.
"Russian elites do not see this situation solely as a consequence of strained Russia-Azerbaijan or Russia-Turkey relations but rather as part of the broader Russia-West confrontation," he concluded.
“However, many believe that no direct confrontation between Russia and Azerbaijan is possible. On the other hand, Russia has economic leverage over Azerbaijan, and the Azerbaijani ruling circles, including the president and his family, are seen as an integral part of the broader elite of the post-Soviet space. In other words, the two sides can both cooperate and challenge each other," Dunamalyan stated.
According to the political scientist, further relations between Russia and Azerbaijan will depend on broader geopolitical developments. He noted that Russia might make compromises with Azerbaijan, though they will not be significant and may even come at the expense of other countries-such as Armenia-given the ongoing difficulties in the normalization of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and the obstacles to implementing energy and infrastructure projects.
"It is evident that Azerbaijan currently holds a stronger position, reinforced by the support of Turkey and, to some extent, the West. At first glance, the situation appears complex, but in reality, the interconnectedness of these processes is quite clear," the political scientist concluded.