With ongoing disinformation campaign Azerbaijan seeks to maintain military option of resolving issues, warns analyst

Political analyst Armen Petrosyan believes the renewed Azeri disinformation campaign is conditioned by the completion of the peace treaty talks with Armenia and particularly the international commendation in this regard.

The Azeri defense ministry has been falsely accusing Armenia of border shooting over the past few days. The Armenian defense ministry has labeled the accusations as disinformation. The EU monitoring mission has also denied the Azeri accusations. 

“The mutual agreement of all 17 terms in the text of the peace treaty in the bilateral talks is factually a documented reality, and the international community’s attention on this achievement that was mostly implemented at the initiative of the Armenian side and as a result of its diplomatic efforts is elevating the level of security in our region by one more level. Thus, it is recorded that the possibility of solving existing issues militarily in the South Caucasus is eliminated,” Petrosyan told Armenpress.

But because Azerbaijan always seeks to maintain in its agenda all the instruments it had been using against Armenia, including the possibility of the use of force or the threat of force, it has been using the fake news campaign to create a media and political backdrop to falsely claim that Armenia doesn’t want peace and the region is far from achieving peace, he added. 

“On one hand there’s the disinformation spread by the Azerbaijani defense ministry, and on the other hand the constant Azerbaijani media articles falsely accusing Armenia of preparing for war, even mentioning timeframes. Despite the fact that even the EU monitoring mission has denied the Azerbaijani reports, nevertheless Azerbaijan’s objective is to maintain the agenda of the use of force or the threat of force, as difficult as it may be in this moment,” the political analyst said.

Petrosyan believes that Azerbaijani authorities well realize that they have appeared in a difficult situation because Armenia has been highly constructive in the negotiations. In addition, the EU monitoring mission is deployed on the border and has been responding to any information or disinformation about tensions. The international community has been actively reacting to the agreements between the sides in the past few days about the content of the peace treaty.

“There’s a rather increased possibility of resolving issues through force or the threat of force by Azerbaijan, therefore it has no other tools than repeating its constantly tested tactics. That’s why generating disinformation by the Azeri defense ministry or in the analytical arena is one of the unique opportunities. It is noteworthy that the Turkish media have also been spreading the same disinformation. Meaning the propaganda machines of the two countries have been spreading identical disinformation, trying to show that the issues in the South Caucasus aren’t yet fully resolved, and the possibility of military escalation still exists,” Petrosyan said.

He said that the Azeri disinformation campaign pursues far-reaching goals.

“Their goal at this moment isn’t about creating grounds for escalation, but the formation of an environment that would show as if the possibility for military escalation still exists, which pursues a more long-term goal,” he said.

As an example, Petrosyan recalled how the parties agreed to launch delimitation in April 2024 on the basis of the Alma-Ata Declaration, which was again lauded by the international community, which was again followed by Azeri fake news.

“Back then the Azerbaijani defense ministry’s disinformation was again seeking to artificially escalate the situation and maintain the agenda beneficial for thems. At this moment, Azerbaijan’s priority is to exert pressure on Armenia in the negotiations process. In the given situation, the important circumstance of the unblocking of regional connections must be taken into account since Azerbaijan doesn’t anyhow want to agree to mutual concessions, by preserving the option of using force and the prospect of advancing its own agenda in this way,” the analyst said.