Turkey will be more dangerous and unpredictable next year: Turcologist

YEREVAN, DECEMBER 23, ARMENPRESS. Turkey’s internal and external policy becomes more and more adventurous and dangerousboth for the region and Turkish people. “Armenpress” reports that director of Institute of Oriental Studies of Armenia, turcologist Ruben Safrastyanexpressed confidence that Turkey will become more dangerous and unpredictable next year.

“One-man rule of Erdoğan will continue. They will continue suppressing Gülenmovement. There are signs that militaristic positions can be restored. I do not exclude that we will witness actions of the GeneralStaffHeadquarters which we have not seen during the last years,” the turcologist emphasized.

Turkey 2015

2015 was a special year in the political life of Turkey. The latter is mainly connected with 2 events. Safrastyan singles out the elections held in Turkey and Turkey’s external policy related to Syria.

“These two issues are interconnected. On one hand, Erdoğan’s adventurous policy, as it seems, led to failure in Turkey’s internal life, and Turkey found itself in a very difficult condition in terms of external policy,” Safrastyan said, adding that a situation has been created around Turkey where many European countries avoid meetings with Erdoğan. He also added that Turkey’s involvement in the Syrian conflict resulted in the reduction of the country’s role in geopolitical terms. This, as the turcologist states, is preconditioned also by Turkey’s problems with the Kurds. So Turkey wanted to increase its role in the region, without taking into account that it does not have so much potential. That is why the country’s role has weakened.

EU shut its eyes to the disgrace of Turkey

The West is well aware of Turkey’s actions but they do not respond, because the refugee crisis made the EU shut its eyes to the disgrace of Turkey.

“The Europeans came to the conclusion that Turkey holds the keys in its hands and Europe not only provided 3 billion to Turkey, but also announced that they can start negotiations over Turkey’s membership to the EU. Willingly or unwillingly Europe makes concessions in connection with Turkey,” Safrastyan said.

On Russian-Turkish relations

The RF responded to Turkish provocations, which were agreed upon and were aimed at exerting pressure on Russia, so that the latter weakens its military activity in Syria.

“The Russians’ reaction was not expected by Turkey and instead of slowing down their activity, they increased it even more. The situation in the region escalated and Turkey’s position became weaker. Turkey was hoist by its own petard. Now Turkey behaves in a reserved manner. And if it goes on like that, the relations will become more alleviated. The position of the West is rather important, as they consider that there has been no incident between the RF and Turkey. This means that the West told Turkey that they start a new stage of relations with Russia and that Turkey should not disturb those relations,” Safrastyan said.

Armenian-Turkish relations

The position of Turkey’s leadership of Armenian Genocide denial showed that no change between the two countries is possible.

“Denial led to complete audacity. For the first time by Gallipoliinitiative they involved the leaders of the world’s countries in their shameful position and game. It is very important that the majority of the world understood what was happening and responded adequately. In terms of modern international relations, Turkey has chosen a rare attitude towards Armenia: 90% of the world’s interstate relations is based on policy of compromise, but Turkey has chosen the opposite policy. Turkey attempts to induce Azerbaijan to assume more aggressive position in the Karabakh issue. Azerbaijan is aggressive even without that and if by Turkey’s incitement it shows more aggression, it will mean resuming military actions. I am hopeful that the acting leadership of Azerbaijan will be prudent and will not become a toy for Turkish conspiracies,” Ruben Safrastyan said.

By Hasmik Harutyunyan