Great Britain is facing the threat of third recession in last 5 years

YEREVAN, JANUARY 25, ARMENPRESS: Britain will find out later on Friday whether its economy shrank again late last year, raising the risk that it is heading for its third recession since the 2008 financial crisis.

As reports Armenpress, forecasts from economists polled by Reuters center on a 0.1 percent fall in gross domestic product (GDP) between October and December compared with the previous quarter, when Britain briefly returned to growth. A further contraction in early 2013 would mean renewed recession, heaping more pressure on the Conservative-led government to soften budget cuts and tax rises that many economists and voters blame for deterring spending and investment.

"Fragile but stable is the best way to describe the UK economy at the moment," said Rob Wood, economist at Berenberg Bank. "The UK is bouncing around a flat-lining trend, hence it does not take much for it to record modest contraction."

Three high-street retail chains have hit the rocks within the first few weeks of the new year, as a toxic mix of austerity, troubles in the euro zone and erosion of real earnings has weighed on the economy. However, output in the much smaller construction sector rose strongly in October and dropped only a little in November, while the far bigger services sector grew 0.1 percent on the month in October after a 0.6 percent decline in September.

The fourth quarter will inevitably look weak by comparison with the third, when the economy was boosted by the London Olympics. Similar one-off factors, such as this month's snow and freezing temperatures, could easily shrink the economy in the first three months of this year too, confirming recession.