Hayk Kotanjian: Issue on recognition of Armenian Genocide acquires relevance among the political elite of Israel

YEREVAN, SEPTEMBER 10, ARMENPRESS:

Hayk Kotanjian, President of Political Science Association of Armenia, Doctor of Political Sciences (RF), Counter-terrorism Fellow (US), Member of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences speaks about the current peculiarities of relations between Israel and Turkey, as well as regional and international developments connected with it.

How do you assess the report on the UN committee’s work headed by the former Prime Minister of New Zealand Geoffrey Palmer to investigate the events related to the international action of the “Mavi Marmara” fleet organized by Turkey against the security interests of Israel?

The main conclusion of the Report is that the legality of the naval blockade of the Gaza Strip is confirmed as a counter-terrorism measure by Israel for the obstruction of the delivery of weapons to the terrorists by sea. The remaining findings are derived from this fundamental conclusion. The Report is also important from the point of view of the assessment of the recklessness of the fleet organizers’ actions who allowed themselves of ignoring the competence of the Armed Forces of Israel in the inspection and delay of vessels in the international waters traveling to the Gaza Strip.

In addition, the measures taken by the Israeli commandos against the “Mavi Marmara” fleet are qualified by the UN Committee as “excessive and unreasonable”, and the treatment of the Israeli military of the passengers as “insulting”. According to the findings of the commission, Tel Aviv is encouraged to express regret over the killing of the Turkish citizens in the capture of the humanitarian mission and to pay compensation to the bereaved families. This formulation does not suit Turkey, which despite the regret already expressed by Israel, demands Tel Aviv to officially admit the guilt and to apologize to Turkey and the affected participants of the “Mavi Marmara” expedition.

What, in your opinion, made for the deterioration of relations between Turkey and Israel – only the individual excesses in connection with the “Mavi Marmara” fleet’s invasion of the zone of the naval blockade of the Gaza Strip and its different interpretations or more substantial circumstances?

Judging by the trends of processes occurring in the Greater Middle East, Turkey is seeking to obtain the role of the extensively reorganizing Islamic world’s leader. It is making conscious efforts to distance itself from the Kemalist model of secularism and positioning itself as a Muslim state of a new type synthesizing in its political and legal system the values of the “soft Islam” and democracy.

Thus, Turkey seeks to serve as a policy guideline of the “Arab Spring” by supporting not only the change of power in the Islamic countries, but also the change of regimes. We are talking about the radical transformation of the authoritarian political and legal systems with the ousting of the existing elites from the public-political arena and with the advent to power of a new generation of “Muslim democrats” and of future dictators and torturers mimicking them (like the first trials of Hitler’s pseudo-democratic rhetoric).

Turkey pursuing its strategic goal to expand the influence in the region and beyond consistently propagandizes the intimidation of the international community by the threat to master the control of the “Arab Spring” by groups of Muslim radicals. At the same time Turkey is trying to convince the partners in the indispensability of its services in providing the Islamic world with the Turkish model of softening and democratization of Islam according to the strategy of the “Justice and Development” ruling party and thus to force the West to come to terms with the leader’s role of Turkey in the vast geopolitical space of the Near and Middle East, Mediterranean and North Africa.

Under these conditions of a shift in Turkey’s political strategy, the apologies it requires from Israel are at the core a demand for a substantial review of the price, which Israel will have to pay in the future for strategic partnership with Turkey claiming leadership in coordinating the political reorganization of the whole Islamic world. It should be noted that even with the new priorities of Turkey it is possible that even if Israel issues an apology it could be construed as an admission of guilt by the Israeli side and serve as additional grounds for the Turkish side in the International Court of Justice to prosecute the Israeli commandos having taken part in the counterterroristoperation.In other words, Turkey’s demand for an apology by Israel should be deemed as of purely opportunistic and instrumental character.

How, in your view, will Israel react to Turkey’s presentation of “a new price” for their cooperation in the new environment?Is it possible that Israel will recognize the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire?

Judging by the recent statements of some leaders, this issue once again acquires relevance and strategic caliber among the political elite of Israel.Nevertheless, it is obvious that, reflecting deep convergence of the imperative for guarantees of non-recurrence of the Jewish Holocaust and the Armenian Genocide, it is strictly an internal affair of the State of Israel.

One thing can be confidently presumed that the best minds of the political Olympus of Israel, distancing themselves from the party-political internal rivalry, are intensively finalizing the optimal strategy for responding to new challenges to its national security under the conditions of the presentation by Turkey to Israel in fact new, exorbitantly higher price for cooperation.It shouldn’t be ruled out that as a result of systemic pragmatic considerations this price would be fundamentally unacceptable to Israel's national security.For Israel's security it is actually very dangerous to have no guarantees against further hike in stakes and price that Turkey prepares to present to Israel in the process of assuming the role of a real leader of the "Arab Spring" and the Islamic world "converted" under its guidance in general.

When assessing the security guarantees of the Jewish people having lived through the catastrophe of the Holocaust, apparently, one should proceed from the fact that the cornerstone benchmark of the strategic priorities of allied Israel and the United States, as well as of all the permanent members of the UN Security Council should become collective efficient monitoring of controversial political processes unfolded during the "Arab Spring".As a result, it is important to have both the international community’s support to the progressive transformation of the Islamic world and the counteraction to the dangerous anti-democratic use of its potential so important for mankind - under the possibly opportunistic guise of the slogans of "soft Islam" and democracy.