Hayk Kocharyan: Egypt has experienced such a shock that it will take many years to restore

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 4, ARMENPRESS; The anti-governmental demonstration started in 2011 in Tunis grew into a revolution of “jasmines”, after which demonstrations of complaint were held in other Arabic countries as well, including Egypt, Jordan and Yemen. It is already 10 days that the demonstrators gathered in the central square of the capital of Egypt do not go away, claiming the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak. The events taking place in the Arabic world were analyzed by specialist of Arabic studies Hayk Khocharyan in an interview with Armenpress.

-Mr. Koharyan, are the latest events in Tunis and Egypt typical of the current stage of development of the whole Arabic world, or are they just of local nature?

-The processes of different countries of the Arabic world have their nuances. What happens in the Arabic world is the result of the global world, in which we live today. All the processes have become global. What takes place in one place influences on another event. In these societies, in particular, in Tunis and Egypt, there were problems earlier too, but the matter is why it takes place in Egypt with such strength. Egypt lived with its problems quite a long time, in particular, with social problems. In the recent period statistical data about the revenue of the middle-class Egyptian have been publicized, which shows that there are serious social problems, which burst out.

-Which are the main reasons for the events taking place in Egypt?

-I think the social reasons are primary, in particular, high level of corruption, polarization of the society, application of continuous political violence, and ruling policy “with heavy hand”.

-What do you think how this inner-political crisis will develop?

-One thing is clear today. Egypt has experienced such a shock that it will take many years to restore and become the country which received a large number of tourists and was safe. Army has a big role in Egypt, the patience of which is not endless, and it will support one of the parties. And I think that the army stands up for the opposition, which wants the resignation of Mubarak. Besides that, we should also take into consideration the circumstance of foreign influence on the army; the USA provides to the Egyptian army over 1 billion USD.

-How will the events in Egypt influence on the rearrangement of the forces in Near East?

-Egypt is one of the important and main players of Near East, it is very important how the events will develop in this country and who will take the leadership. Here the foreign forces on behalf of the USA and European Union are very active. Lately Turkey, Iran, the Southern Arabia and Israel have been trying to make their voice hearable. After the changes the role of Egypt will surely decrease, as it will be engaged in solution of domestic issues, no matter who will rule the country. This can be profitable for the other players of the region, be it Iran or Turkey. The latter will manage to strengthen its striving of being the leader in the region. And in regard to what kind of influence these events will have on the domestic life of the countries of the region, I can mention that there is quite a stable leadership in case of Iran. The Saudi Arabia is a kingdom, and it is hardly to say with what scenario these events will develop, especially if we take into consideration that there are no prerequisites for social riot. In regard of Israel I want to stress that the latter wishes to understand with who it has a deal. It is very important for Israel that the leadership in Egypt is recognizable ad predictable.