Azerbaijan could sign peace agreement with Armenia and leave bilateral legal procedures for later, says former Turkish envoy to NATO

There is a solid basis for the finalisation of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, according to Fatih Ceylan, former Turkish ambassador to NATO and director of the Ankara Policy Center.

Ceylan shared his views in an interview with Armenpress conducted during a visit to Türkiye by a group of Armenian journalists under an exchange programme.

Asked whether he remained optimistic about the normalisation of Armenia-Azerbaijan and Armenia-Türkiye relations and the establishment of lasting peace in the South Caucasus, given Azerbaijan’s continued insistence that Armenia amend its Constitution before signing a final peace agreement, Ceylan recalled that Armenia and Azerbaijan announced in March 2025 that they had agreed on all provisions of the peace agreement and initialled it in Washington in August 2025 in the presence of U.S. President Donald Trump.

“So there is a solid basis for the finalisation of the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Direct trade has also begun between the two countries. We should encourage this process so that it reaches the stage of signing and finalisation. That is important. It will be a major turning point for the South Caucasus and will offer a much better outlook for the region’s future. It will not be limited to the South Caucasus but will also include Central Asia. I believe the Central Asian republics are also interested in seeing the agreement finalised. Since the United States is now involved in the process and the European Union is engaged through its connectivity initiatives, everyone is waiting for the agreement to be concluded. Once it is signed, I believe it will oblige both countries to make the necessary changes to their legal systems. That will become a legal obligation for both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The sooner Azerbaijan signs the peace agreement, the better it will be not only for Armenia-Azerbaijan relations but also for Türkiye and Georgia. I believe it will strengthen prospects for regional cooperation, give greater momentum to the process and create a firmer foundation,” Ceylan said.

Asked whether Baku would eventually abandon its precondition and sign the peace agreement with Armenia, the former Turkish diplomat replied:

“I hope so. I am confident that such discussions are taking place, perhaps behind the scenes, between the Turkish authorities and the Azerbaijani leadership. And perhaps not only between Türkiye and Azerbaijan. There are various interested parties, such as the European Union, the United States and the Central Asian countries. So I believe there are contacts aimed at encouraging Azerbaijan to sign the agreement. This is part of an ongoing process which, I hope, will produce a concrete outcome in the form of a signed peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In reality, everything is ready. I am aware of the constitutional issue, but that can be addressed over time because there will be legal obligations for both sides.”

Ceylan also expressed the view that, alongside the peace agreement, Armenia and Azerbaijan could sign a memorandum of understanding committing themselves to implementing those legal obligations. In his opinion, such constitutional changes cannot take place in Armenia at this stage, given the outcome of the recent parliamentary elections.

“Perhaps they could sign a protocol, a memorandum of understanding or another document based on the peace agreement. This is important and could be done. There may be legal formulas that could be developed for application in the bilateral context,” he said.

Asked whether Türkiye could put pressure on Azerbaijan to sign the peace agreement with Armenia, Ceylan said Ankara was already exerting a certain degree of pressure through its actions. In his assessment, examples include the Turkish vice president’s visit to Yerevan and participation in the European Political Community Summit, the agreements reached with Armenia on restoring the historic Ani Bridge, and the reopening of the Gyumri-Kars railway.

“Perhaps this can be seen as direct or indirect pressure by Türkiye on Azerbaijan, signalling that we need this agreement to be signed. Of course, we do not know whether these issues are discussed behind closed doors between Ankara and Baku, and I cannot comment on that. But look at what is happening in practice. The Ani Bridge project, the vice president’s participation in the summit in Yerevan and the completion of railway infrastructure in Kars are, as far as I can judge, signs of a certain degree of pressure being exerted by Türkiye,” Ceylan said.

Commenting on what might happen if Türkiye moved more actively and rapidly towards normalising relations with Armenia, Ceylan suggested that such a scenario could cause some concern in Baku. He noted that Azerbaijan has extensive economic and trade ties with Türkiye and considerable influence there.

“In that case, Azerbaijan could use various instruments in its relations with Türkiye, which could to some extent complicate bilateral ties between Ankara and Baku. That is why Ankara is acting cautiously, while sending signals through such steps as participation in the summit in Yerevan, the restoration of the Ani Bridge and preparations of infrastructure on the Türkiye-Armenia border. These are messages to Baku, showing that ‘we are ready, so do everything you can to achieve full normalisation’. This is not only in Türkiye’s interest but also in Azerbaijan’s, because it will benefit the South Caucasus, Central Asia, Türkiye and Europe. I believe this message is being conveyed in practice and, perhaps, also during closed-door meetings, although I do not wish to speculate,” he said.

Ceylan also argued that Armenia, Türkiye and Azerbaijan, together with Georgia, should take ownership of the normalisation process.

“I believe one thing is very important. First of all, we must take ownership of this process. All three countries, together with Georgia, should take ownership of this regional initiative and this path towards cooperation. That is essential. We should not lose the momentum that has recently been gained in the search for normalisation between Türkiye and Armenia, as well as between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Nor should we forget Georgia as a regional actor. There has already been visible progress in the normalisation of relations between Türkiye and Armenia. Certain infrastructure works are also under way and will be completed once the border is opened. I believe the opening of the border will be a turning point in the normalisation process between Türkiye and Armenia,” he said.

Ceylan added that close contacts between institutions and people in both countries, cooperation in tourism and the development of cultural ties would help build mutual trust between the Armenian and Turkish peoples.

In his view, the prospects are encouraging, and the sooner these developments take place, the better it will be for Armenia, Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Georgia.

“So we must take ownership of our region and make use of cooperation mechanisms and frameworks without delay,” the former Turkish ambassador to NATO concluded.