TRIPP poised to reshape the geopolitics of the South Caucasus – Atlantic Council article

An article published by the U.S. think tank Atlantic Council highlighted the benefits of the TRIPP project in Armenia.

The article titled How Trump’s ‘TRIPP’ triumph can advance US interests in the South Caucasus is written by Andrew D’Anieri, associate director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, and Joseph Epstein, director of the Turan Research Center and senior fellow at the Yorktown Institute.

“A twenty-seven-mile stretch of land running through southern Armenia is poised to reshape the geopolitics of the South Caucasus,” the article says.

According to the experts, TRIPP “could go down as one of US President Donald Trump’s most impressive foreign policy achievements of his second term.”

“The agreement envisions the United States government providing upfront capital to develop the route and making a financial return via the TDC [TRIPP Development Company] over the life of the project through transit fees and commercial opportunities along the route, in addition to construction contracts to US companies. Armenia will earn revenue based on its minority stake in the TDC, plus taxes and customs duties along TRIPP. It’s an arrangement that should work well for both parties. The White House can tell Americans that they are getting an economic return for US diplomatic engagement in the South Caucasus and opening new opportunities for US companies. At the same time, [Armenian Prime Minister] Pashinyan can sell the agreement as a means of attracting high-quality Western infrastructure investment—something he had pursued through his Crossroads of Peace initiative—that can help position Armenia as a regional transport hub, all while maintaining control over Armenian territory,” it said. “TRIPP could provide spillover benefits to Washington, Yerevan, and the broader Caspian region, as well. The US government has been quietly supportive of the Middle Corridor, a multi-modal trade route that connects Central Asia to Turkey and Europe via the Caspian Sea and infrastructure chokepoints in Azerbaijan and Georgia. Washington and its European partners see the Middle Corridor as a way for overland trade with Asia to bypass Russia, including the potential export of critical minerals and rare earths from Central Asia. The South Caucasus and Central Asian countries seek prosperity through better integration with global markets. TRIPP provides another route across the Caucasus, increasing transport volume capacity as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan work to build port capacity to meet trade demand. The successful implementation of TRIPP would make it cheaper and faster to ship products and critical raw materials from Central Asia to Europe and beyond.”

According to the authors, "understanding that a peace deal with Azerbaijan was the only way to remove Russian leverage and therefore achieve true independence, the Armenian prime minister staked his political future on such a deal."

"Simultaneously, he inked major defense deals with India, France, Greece, and Cyprus, among others. But the United States is the only power capable of truly offering Armenia an exit ramp from Russian domination. By conducting peace negotiations under US auspices and placing US interests directly over TRIPP, Pashinyan and Aliyev have protected the most sensitive part of the deal with a US deterrent. But more than that, they tied the success of the peace process to closer relations with Washington."

The article also noted that Russia has targeted the Armenian PM with fake news ahead of this year’s election. “Moscow will almost certainly seek to expand these efforts ahead of the election.”

The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) is a connectivity project in Armenia, envisaged under the U.S.-brokered Armenian-Azerbaijani joint declaration signed in Washington, D.C. The project is expected to unlock strategic economic opportunities, create long-term benefits by promoting infrastructure investment, and enhance regional connectivity. TRIPP is part of the Crossroads of Peace project, and an Armenian-American joint enterprise is expected to develop the route.

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio earlier this month approved the joint statement on the TRIPP Implementation Framework.