Likelihood of Iran-Israel hostilities in 2026 remains high, says Armenian foreign intelligence service
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The Israel-Iran war has had a significant impact on the policies of the actors of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, shaping a new power balance in the region, the Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service said in its 2026 External Security Risks report published exclusively by Armenpress.
The situation is further complicated by the determination of the status of nonstate armed groups in the Middle East, the uncertainties related to their future activity, and the conflicting positions of the regional and non-regional actors in this regard. Due to the Israel-Iran war, Iran’s nuclear and missile programs have been pushed back but not completely neutralized. In the post-war period, the agenda of negotiations with Iran has been modified in practice and, apart from the nuclear program, includes Iran’s missile capabilities and its Middle East policy,” the agency said.
In the post-war period the two countries are each working to eliminate the vulnerabilities uncovered during the war and developing their military capabilities, it added.
“After the 12-day war as well, the topic of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the USA will remain a factor affecting processes of a larger context. Considering the fact that the 12-day war between Israel and Iran did not result in either side achieving all of its strategic goals, the likelihood of a war or mutual strikes of a different intensity remains high. This, in turn, will expand the scope of security issues for the Republic of Armenia in terms of managing the movement of groups posing migration and other types of threats, emergence of economic and logistical problems, and diversification of risks threatening consolidation of peace in the South Caucasus. At the same time, the success of the Islamic system in managing the ongoing domestic processes in Iran will almost certainly have a significant impact on the materialization of the agendas promoted by both Middle Eastern and extra-regional actors. An increase in instability in Iran would further amplify Armenia’s security risks,” the Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service said.