Ruble devaluation will have an impact on migration flows

YEREVAN, JANUARY 21, ARMENPRESS. Ruble devaluation will necessarily have an impact on migration flows. Economist Garik Siroyan told “Armenpress” about this. In his words, the impact of ruble devaluation can take different forms. First, part of those leaving for Russia to work, will prefer to stay in Armenia. The reason is that the ruble they get for their job has devaluated and exchanging it into dram, they receive much less money. Here rises the issue of expediency, to go or not.

In any case, according to the economist, the fact that there are no jobs in Armenia may make people to leave, because it is better to earn little money than nothing. In the words of Garik Simonyan, they will be able to solve their daily living problems even with the less money.

“Conditioned by ruble devaluation migration flows can also take other forms. Particularly, those leaving to work abroad may take their families with them, as those who earn money working abroad, spend the money both there and here. Therefore, one of the options is to gather in one place so as not to encounter the problem of exchanging the earned ruble and avoid the losses conditioned by ruble devaluation”, the economist said, adding that at the beginning of spring it will become clear what changes will occur in migration flows.

According to the economist, if it happens so that the majority of those leaving for abroad work remain in Armenia, the labor market of Armenia will shake, because it is not ready to accept so many employees.

“The Armenian labor market is mainly concentrated in Yerevan. Due to unproportionate development of provinces the main movement is concentrated in the capital. And if those leaving for abroad work, who are mainly from provinces, remain in Armenia, serious problems will arise with a number of social consequences”, the economist added.

What should the Government do in this case? In the words of Garik Siroyan, it is a difficult period for our country. The global economy is in declining phase, particularly, the economic growth of one of its locomotives, China, has significantly slowed down. Armenia is closely related to the Russian economy, and the latter is in a very complicated economic situation. Besides, conditioned by ruble devaluation, Armenian exports to Russia has sharply declined, which directly impacts the Armenian economy.

“In addition, if we observe Armenia in terms of ore exports, price of copper, molybdenum and other ores has also declined in international markets. Consequently, our revenues have also declined. In this context, it is very difficult to solve some problems, as the global situation is quite complicated. In any case, the state must interfere; try to conduct promoting policy in terms of job creation so as to mitigate the tension. Particularly, the state must promote small and medium business, development of agricultural economy so that people gain extra opportunities and new jobs are created”, Garik Siroyan added.