Force plays a more decisive role than established rules in emerging new world order, analyst says

Political scientist Edgar Vardanyan believes that humanity is witnessing the emergence of a new world order, one in which force plays a much more decisive role than established rules, while the world order built on the previous rules is clearly facing a serious crisis.

In an interview with Armenpress, Edgar Vardanyan addressed one of the most intense conflicts on the international stage—the Russian-Ukrainian conflict—and linked the future nature of the new world order to the nature of the conflict and its possible resolution.

“The transformational processes taking place in the world are unprecedented in nature, but to some extent there is an understanding between the current US administration and the authorities of the Russian Federation, which did not exist during the tenure of former US President Joe Biden, whose approaches were more confrontational in nature. Therefore, the factor of mutual understanding may, to some extent, contribute to the resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian war,” Vardanyan said.

In his view, the negotiation process may also be significantly affected by the fact that elections are expected to be held in the United States, and therefore, ahead of them, the Trump administration needs to demonstrate positive developments in the negotiation process.

“Donald Trump has quite little time, therefore, he will make every effort to reach some kind of resolution, even if it means reaching a preliminary agreement. The problem is also that although Russia says it is ready for negotiations, it is guided by its own agenda, which is diametrically opposed to the Ukrainian agenda. The conflicting sides are unable to reach a compromise due to sharp disagreements. The demands of both sides are unacceptable, so it is difficult to say whether the United States, even at the cost of great effort, will succeed in persuading the Russian Federation to make concessions and soften its position,” Vardanyan noted.

The political scientist emphasized that today a stalemate has emerged on the battlefield, but this does not mean that the search for solutions will not intensify.

“Ukraine continues to put up serious resistance to the Russian Federation, taking advantage of the support of Western countries. Kyiv, unexpectedly for many, was able to strike military and industrial targets in different Russian cities as a result of putting its defense industry on new tracks and effectively using new technologies, which significantly changed the nature of the war,” he said.

Addressing the question of whether, specifically against the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and in the context of the search for ways to resolve it, the United States and the European Union continue to remain partners, Vardanyan emphasized that although the two poles do not have unified approaches and positions at this stage, they nevertheless continue to remain partners.

“In terms of military potential, the position of the United States is unequivocally stronger than that of the EU, which cannot fail to affect the negotiation process. The number-one player here is the United States, which has the ability to persuade European countries to accept some option that may not be so preferable for the EU. There are certain ‘red lines’ for both the EU and Ukraine. If those lines are not crossed, solutions are possible precisely between the United States and European countries, which are also allies within the framework of the North Atlantic Alliance, NATO,” Vardanyan elaborated.

In his observation, although the new world order has not yet been fully formed, it is undergoing intensive transformations; therefore, the resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian and Iranian-American conflicts may lead to the institutionalization of the new world order.

“Nevertheless, in the newly emerging world order, which is based on the application of force rather than rules, international institutions will nevertheless have a very serious influence and importance. Today, arguments can be made simultaneously in favor of unipolar, bipolar, and multipolar world orders, so it is difficult to say to what extent the resolution of conflicts may clarify the issue. One thing is clear: the debates will continue, but the most important role of the United States in that world order will remain indisputable,” the political scientist concluded.