Europe at the Crossroads of Geopolitical Transformations: The Main Agenda and Armenia

In the context of a changing world order, where security, sovereignty, as well as economic and technological competition occupy a central role, European politics is also undergoing profound transformation. Today, the strategic agenda of the European Union and its member states centers on several interconnected and vital priorities: positioning as a geopolitical center in international relations, reassessing relations with key partners, pursuing a favorable resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, rearmament and strengthening defense capabilities, economic challenges, ensuring internal stability, institutional reforms and digital autonomy. 

The European agenda can no longer be viewed solely through the prism of foreign relations or internal developments: they are now intertwined and require strategic solutions from the European political elite. In the context of foreign relations, Europe is facing an increasingly competitive and unpredictable international environment, which calls for a more flexible, robust, and forward-looking approach to security and diplomacy.

Considering these challenges and the potential and inevitable shifts in the EU’s external relations and engagement with neighboring countries, Armenia must also prioritize the study of key trends in the European agenda and evolving dynamics of European policies. In particular, this year the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia adopted the law “On Launching Accession Process of the Republic of Armenia to the European Union”, highlighting the Armenian society’s commitment to democratic values and its aspiration toward democratic reforms and sustainable progress. Certain notable developments are also being observed in the EU enlargement policy, making it important to assess the opportunities that may arise.

Europe as a Geopolitical Center

The nearly three-decade period of peace and prosperity in Europe has been confronted with serious challenges. After the end of the Cold War, the European Union operated for decades within a relatively stable international system, where it was expected that economic interdependence and multilateral diplomacy would prevent large-scale conflicts. Under these conditions, the European Union paid comparatively less attention to defense and security matters, relying primarily on NATO. Although discussions on security issues took place previously as well, the foundations of that system began to deteriorate significantly starting in 2022, with the outbreak of war in Ukraine. This shift was further intensified by the change in US strategic priorities, the strengthening of China and increasing global competition. Together, these factors underscored the EU’s strategic vulnerability.

The aspiration to restore Europe’s role as a geopolitical center stems from the understanding that the EU must be capable of influencing the resolution of regional and global issues and safeguarding its security across all fronts. This objective is closely linked to the reassessment of relations with allies, the rearmament agenda and the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine.

To restore its role as a global actor, Europe has advanced numerous initiatives and is actively pursuing diplomatic efforts. One such initiative is the “Global Gateway” program, which envisions the willingness to invest up to 300 billion euros in infrastructure projects worldwide, often viewed as an alternative to China’s “Belt and Road” initiative. Another important instrument is the enlargement policy, which in recent years had entered a phase of stagnation. Today, enlargement is considered in a broader context, not only in terms of membership, but also as a means of strengthening the security and resilience of the EU’s immediate neighbors, deepening integration and thereby enhancing the Union’s attractiveness for partners. For the EU to act cohesively in foreign policy, it is essential that EU institutions and member states coordinate their external actions effectively. In this regard, the Union certainly faces numerous challenges, as national interests and government priorities of member states sometimes contradict one another. A significant step towards overcoming this issue would be adopting qualified majority voting for decisions on foreign and security policy. The “2024 Annual Report on the Implementation of the Common Foreign and Security Policy”, adopted by the European Parliament on April 2, 2025, calls on the European Council to gradually apply qualified majority voting in these domains.

At the same time, it should be emphasized that after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, we have witnessed numerous expressions of European solidarity. For example, following BrExit, the United Kingdom has cooperated closely with France and Germany on issues of common European concern. Another indication of Europe’s consolidation is that Sweden and Finland abandoned their neutral status to join NATO. Unity on the Ukrainian issue, reinforcing its position at the negotiation table for conflict resolution and maintaining a resolute stance will enable the EU to function effectively as a geopolitical center.

France, under the leadership of President Emmanuel Macron, stands as the primary drive behind Europe's strategic autonomy and defense agenda. Paris actively promotes both the idea of EU enlargement and the implementation of qualified majority voting mechanisms. At the same time, France places great emphasis on ensuring the EU’s autonomy in the defense domain. The National Strategic Review 2025 officially reaffirms the central role of nuclear deterrence as the cornerstone of France’s independent defense policy. France has also announced the launch of a strategic dialogue with interested European partners regarding the potential role of nuclear deterrence in collective European defense. According to France’s 2025 budget, an additional 6.7 billion euros has been allocated to maintain and modernize the country’s armed forces and nuclear capabilities. Among European states, France is the strongest supporter of establishing an EU army and actively backs the European Defence Fund and the EU Rapid Deployment Capacity. Furthermore, France maintains a permanent military presence in the Indo-Pacific region, regarded as one of the key arenas of geopolitical competition.

Parallel to France, Germany has also been increasingly active under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, with its influence rooted in its substantial economic power and its position as the EU’s largest and most central country. Contemporary Germany continues to follow the course outlined during Olaf Scholz’s tenure with the proclamation of the “Zeitenwende” (Turning Point), primarily referring to the country’s shift toward becoming a major actor in security and geopolitics. Germany has established a €100 billion special fund for the modernization of its armed forces, aimed at addressing a decade-long investment deficit and enhancing military readiness. In addition, Berlin has aligned its defense spending with NATO’s requirement of 2% of GDP, making it one of the leading contributors to collective defense in Europe. In political matters, Germany largely shares France’s approach and actively promotes it.

Other strong proponents of a more assertive European policy include Poland, Italy, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands and the Baltic states.

At the same time, to restore its strategic significance, Europe has initiated a reassessment of its relations with key global actors. The transatlantic partnership remains indispensable, yet it has experienced significant shifts. Washington’s long-term focus is increasingly shifting toward the Indo-Pacific region and systemic competition with China and American involvement in European defense remains uncertain, particularly during Donald Trump’s tenure. Europe also intends to re-evaluate its relations with China, which can now be characterized as a complex combination of cooperation, competition and strategic caution.

Defense and Security

Regarding Ukraine, it must be noted that the war has become the central pivot around which Europe’s new strategic thinking revolves. In the early stages of the conflict, Europe’s unity in providing military and financial support to Kyiv, as well as in imposing sanctions on Russia, was crucial for Ukraine’s resilience. However, that unity has faced growing challenges, driven by domestic political pressures, economic difficulties, and fundamental disagreements over a long-term strategy to bring the war to an end. The most pressing factor remains Hungary, which has consistently used its veto power to obstruct EU-wide actions, delaying key financial aid, sanction packages and progress in Ukraine’s accession negotiations with the EU. Additionally, the burden of military support has been unevenly distributed: Northern and Eastern European states have made substantial contributions to Ukraine’s defense, while some major Southern countries have been reluctant to increase their military assistance. This internal tension was further exacerbated by US President Donald Trump’s peace proposal presented in November 2025, which was not fully accepted by European countries. While it was not outright rejected, both France, Germany and other states voiced their reservations. European leaders cannot categorically dismiss Trump’s proposal, but there are “red lines” that Europe is determined to defend. The EU opposes any recognition of border changes through the use of force, limitations on Ukraine’s defense capabilities and nullification of Ukraine’s sovereign right to join alliances. At the same time, it is likely that at some stage, European countries may have to consider certain concessions if the United States and Russia reach a comprehensive agreement. Despite EU leaders’ determination to support Ukraine, public opinion is largely indifferent and often even unfavorable toward Kyiv. This is the result of both public fatigue and ongoing hybrid threats, which further undermine European unity.

Europe’s strategic reorientation cannot succeed without a comprehensive transformation of its defense strategy. Over the past two years, the process of rearmament across Europe has accelerated significantly. As illustrated by the examples of France and Germany, European countries have begun raising defense budgets and implementing major programs for the modernization of armed forces and military equipment. The EU has also started to pay greater attention to strengthening its defense-industrial base, promoting joint procurement and supporting research and innovation initiatives.      

Thus, on March 21, 2022, the EU Council adopted the “Strategic Compass for Security and Defence”, the EU’s first comprehensive military doctrine in its history. It provides a unified strategic vision and a concrete action plan for the EU’s security and defense policy through 2030. The Strategic Compass shifts the EU from abstract security discussions toward the development of tangible military capabilities. Its cornerstone was the commitment to establish, by 2025, a Rapid Deployment Capacity of up to 5,000 personnel, enabling the EU to act decisively in crisis situations without relying on NATO or US support. In May 2025, the EU announced that this Rapid Deployment Capacity was fully operational.

In 2023, the European Defence Industry Reinforcement through Common Procurement Act (EDIRPA) came into effect. With a budget of €300 million, this instrument is designed to address critical gaps in defense capabilities. Through EDIRPA, the EU budget is used to promote joint procurement of defense equipment among member states.

In 2025, the European Parliament officially approved the European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP), a medium-term initiative with a budget of €1.5 billion that establishes a set of rules concerning European arms procurement and supply chains. 

Another important document is the Joint White Paper for European Defence – Readiness 2030, which sets the goal for the EU to achieve full defense preparedness by 2030. It provides a comprehensive strategic framework for political and financial programs, including Europe’s rearmament plan, which aims to mobilize up to €800 billion.

When discussing Europe’s defense and security, NATO cannot be overlooked. Although final figures are not yet available, according to statements, in 2025 the 23 EU member states that are also NATO members are expected to contribute between 28% and 32% of the Alliance’s collective defense expenditures. It is also important to note the high-profile NATO summit held in The Hague in June 2025, where all member states agreed to allocate 5% of their GDP annually to national security and defense-related expenditures by 2035. Additionally, the summit reaffirmed Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which states that an attack on one ally is considered an attack on all allies. On one hand, this demonstrates NATO’s unity, on the other, the very need to reaffirm it already sends a cautionary signal.

Despite the observed positive developments, Europe’s defense sector faces complex challenges. The most serious issue is the lack of cohesion among the 27 EU member states, which slows down the decision-making process. A fully agreed-upon policy on defense procurement has also not been established, leading to inefficient spending that weaken the collective industrial base. Furthermore, the principle of unanimous decision-making creates political obstacles, particularly in the defense and security sector, and especially in situations requiring rapid response. European defense remains heavily dependent on the United States from intelligence sharing to the nuclear umbrella. This means that true operational independence remains, for now, only a long-term objective.

Opportunities for Strategic Shifts for Armenia

The European Union’s efforts to strengthen its geopolitical role, develop its own military capabilities, enhance the independence of its foreign policy decisions, and revive the pace of enlargement present significant opportunities for Armenia. 

Equally notable is the EU’s sustained interest in deepening its relations with Armenia, as evidenced by the adoption of the new Armenia–EU Partnership Strategic Agenda on December 2 and the elevation of cooperation to a strategic level. Accordingly, Yerevan can consider several strategic moves to accelerate Armenia’s integration into the EU’s key strategic priorities. By proactively aligning its national interests with the evolving European agenda, Armenia seeks to strengthen its sovereignty, continue diversifying its security and secure critical investments during this historically decisive period.

1. Armenia can accelerate its reform agenda by moving as close as possible to the Copenhagen criteria. In this regard, it is particularly important to focus on sectors that correspond with the EU’s new priorities, such as internal stability and resilience.

2. Develop close cooperation with the European Defence Fund and the European Peace Facility. Given the recurring challenges related to funding, Armenia should also seek participation in EU defense research, development and exchanges of expertise. It is equally important to work on support mechanisms aimed at countering hybrid threats.

3. Another important opportunity for Armenia is the “Global Gateway” initiative. Given the EU’s interest, it is crucial to work on unblocking transit routes, including attracting European investments for projects such as Armenia’s “Crossroads of Peace” and TRIPP.

4. Considering all potential risks, Armenia can explore participation in military exercises and training programs under the framework of the Strategic Compass, particularly those related to the Rapid Deployment Capacity. Notably, Armenia and the EU have already outlined the scope of Armenia’s involvement in EU crisis management operations.

5. Armenia can also work closely with France, Greece and Germany to identify opportunities for involvement in supply chains or joint procurement projects funded by EDIRPA and EDIP.

Europe is currently undergoing a profound strategic reorientation. Driven by the prolonged conflict in Ukraine, the need for strategic autonomy, and the aspiration to become a global geopolitical center, the EU will need substantial political will and financial resources to strengthen both its own defense capabilities and the resilience of its neighbors.

For Armenia, this European shift presents an important opportunity to integrate into the EU’s new strategic framework. By acting decisively and demonstrating reliability, Armenia can transform this cooperation into a valuable and sustainable partnership, contributing to the strengthening of the country’s sovereignty and stability.

Varduhi Harutyunyan

International Relations Specialist

The views expressed in the article are the personal opinion of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position of the editorial board.