Debt-to-GDP ratio to reach 54% in medium term, trending downward, says minister

In the medium term, the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to stabilize between 50% and 60%, with the government forecasting it will reach 54%, Finance Minister Vahe Hovhannisyan told lawmakers at a joint parliamentary committee debate of the 2026 budget bill.

“Considering the projected level of the Armenian dram, our debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to stabilize in the medium term within a range of 50–60%. Specifically, our forecast shows it reaching 54% and trending downward in the following years,” the minister said.

Regarding risks, the government plans to manage them using two main tools. The first is the establishment of macro-reserves, introduced two years ago, aimed at mitigating the risk of revenue shortfalls caused by negative economic shocks.

“The second is a permanent liquidity buffer in the Unified Treasury Account equivalent to 1% of GDP, designed to address any other potential risks,” Hovhannisyan added.