Low likelihood of large-scale Azerbaijani attack on Armenia - Iranian expert

Ehsan Movahedian, an international relations specialist, lecturer, and Caucasus expert at Tehran’s ATU University, assesses the likelihood of a large-scale attack by Azerbaijan against Armenia under the current circumstances as low.  

The expert explains this by pointing to the complex situation in the region and the support Armenia receives from both regional and extra-regional countries.

In an interview with Armenpress, Movahedian addressed the disinformation campaign launched by the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry in recent days, alleging ceasefire violations by Armenia.

The Iranian expert noted that, through such actions, Azerbaijan seeks to extract as many concessions as possible from Armenia.

“Azerbaijan wants to show that, for a peace agreement to be signed, Armenia must make greater concessions to Baku and accept its demands,” he emphasized.

‘When Azerbaijan makes such statements or engages in deceitful propaganda, it indicates that Baku is disappointed.

I believe Armenia should demonstrate that it will not yield to Azerbaijan’s coercion, as such tactics are unacceptable in international relations and contradict established norms and international law.

Furthermore, Iran firmly supports Armenia, and some regional partners also stand by Armenia on this issue. For example, India, and even Georgia. Additionally, certain Western countries also support Armenia,” Movahedian stated.

According to the expert, Baku may provoke localized clashes in border areas in the near future in an attempt to strengthen its position.

"However, I do not think Azerbaijan will attempt to attack Syunik in the near future. Baku is unlikely to take such a step because the situation in the region is highly complex. Azerbaijan should pause and carefully consider its actions before going for it," the Iranian expert emphasized.

The expert noted  that, under such conditions, if Iran and Armenia conduct military exercises, even with the participation of other countries, such as India or Russia, it would send a clear and powerful message to Baku.

“If Iran and Armenia launch a joint military exercise, it would be a strong message to all adversaries. Azerbaijan cannot initiate any actions; they merely seek to intimidate you. The Armenian government must oppose these preconditions because Baku intends to insult a sovereign country - Armenia. He explained that  if Armenia continuously accept these demands, Baku will eventually come up with new ones.

"Armenia must stop accepting preconditions, stand firm, and strengthen its military readiness and power,” Movahedian said.

The Iranian expert also referred to the recent telephone conversation between the Prime Minister of Armenia and the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, emphasizing that both parties unequivocally reaffirmed the strategic nature of Armenian-Iranian relations.

The expert expressed confidence that during the conversation, Iranian red lines regarding the preservation and inviolability of the Armenian-Iranian border were certainly addressed.

“I believe the leaders of the two countries also discussed bilateral economic ties, achievements, and trade volume,” concluded Movahedian.