Turkiye seeks to record South Caucasus status quo in Armenia-Azerbaijan treaty, says scholar
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Turkiye seeks to become a top decision-maker on the global stage but South Caucasus doesn’t have the kind of significance for it as before, according to a scholar.
Academician Ruben Safrastyan, a top expert on Turkiye, told Armenpress that the latest developments in Syria have greatly strengthened Turkiye’s positions. Ankara has assumed huge obligations, to control the transition of power in Syria. Nevertheless, according to Safrastyan, Turkiye doesn’t seek to get involved with the same intensity in the regional processes in South Caucasus.
Armenpress asked Safrastyan on the possible impacts of the developments in Syria on the South Caucasus region.
“Right now, Turkiye wouldn’t want the situation in South Caucasus to escalate for it to have to interfere. If we were to look at this strategic issue more broadly, then we have to mention that an important phase of geopolitical changes is happening now in the Middle East, the purpose of which is to some extent the US withdrawal from the region, which would lead to Turkiye trying to fill that vacuum by agreeing its steps with the American side and getting support. This also gives the chance to conclude that Turkiye will not seek a highly active role in South Caucasus by escalating the situation,” Safrastyan said.
According to Safrastyan, Turkish President Erdogan is pursuing a strategic goal of making Turkiye one of the top decision-makers in the world. Erdogan had even announced that the world is much bigger and not limited to the five permanent members of the UN Security Council.
But South Caucasus, according to Safrastyan, is not of the same significance to Turkiye as several years ago.
“Turkiye is now interested for the status-quo stemming from its strengthened positions in the region to be documented in the Armenian-Azerbaijani treaty and be favorable for Azerbaijan. I think, in the foreseeable future Turkiye will not want for an escalation or new war to happen here,” Safrastyan said.
Asked why Turkiye is not suppressing the Azeri leader’s belligerent and maximalist rhetoric, Safrastyan said that a differing outlook has emerged between Turkiye and Azerbaijan: Ankara pursues geopolitical and strategic aspirations, global projects, while Baku's outlook is a lot smaller and narrower.
“What matters for Baku is not the signing of the peace treaty with Armenia, but extorting big concessions, thus it is using the belligerent rhetoric to pressure Armenia. Nevertheless I am not convinced that the foundation of this rhetoric is unleashing war against Armenia, because reality and rhetoric are different things. Despite this, we should remain vigilant and be ready to withstand any opportunism or aggression,” the academician said.
According to Safrastyan, currently Turkiye doesn’t want to oppose Russia or Iran as well, but it is not ruled out that Ankara will try to strengthen its positions further in the future.
“Turkiye is simply involved in another, bigger game, and for example, it achieved success in Syria because the positions of Russia and Iran had gotten weaker. In turn Russia is mainly focused on the conflict with Ukraine and wouldn’t want a new hotspot to emerge in South Caucasus. For centuries Russia, Iran and Turkiye had been fighting for our region and as a result of an interesting combination of circumstances now all three of them are against a drastic escalation of the situation in the South Caucasus,” he said.