Armenia Central Bank forecasts gradual decline of 12-month inflation

YEREVAN, MAY 3, ARMENPRESS. As of March 2022, the 12-month inflation increased in Armenia, comprising 7.4%, the 12-month core inflation has also increased, comprising 7.0%, however, the Central Bank estimates that the inflation deviation risks from the predicted horizon are mainly balanced, CBA Governor Martin Galstyan said at a press conference.

He reminded that during today’s session the Board of the Central Bank decided to keep the refinancing rate unchanged, setting it at 9.25%.

“The Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues,andthe uncertainties related to it remain.This has a negative impact on the economic and financial market developments in the main partner countries of Armenia. The slower-than-expected slowdown in economic growth in partner countries is accompanied by an expansion of the inflationary environment. The latter isthe result ofvalue chain disruptions and accelerated inflation in international commodity markets. Thus, inflationary impact on the Armenian economy from the external sector willpersist”, he said.

He stated that in the first quarter of 2022, developments in the economic activity of the Republic of Armenia were more positive than expected.The significant influx of international visitors is reflected in the high growth of the service sector and the expansion ofaggregatedemand.“It contributes to the improvement of the Republic of Armenia external balance and appreciation of Armenian dram in foreign exchange market. It is estimated that the latter will also have a positive impact on weakening the domestic inflationary environment and lowering inflation expectations”, the CBA chief added.

“In view of the above, the Board judges appropriate toleavethe refinancing ratestill unchanged.TheCBABoard iscommittedto takeadequatemeasuresto neutralize anypossiblerisk of deanchoringof inflation expectations.It is projected that the 12-month inflation will gradually decline and will approach the target of 4% in the medium term.

TheCBABoardconsidersthatas a result ofgeopolitical developments the high uncertainty related to the macroeconomic perspective remains.At the same time, the risks of inflation deviation from the projected trajectory are mainly balanced. Should the risks materialize in any direction, the Board stands ready to respond accordingly infulfilment of the price stability objective”, Martin Galstyan said, reading today’s press statement of the Bank.