CSTO can play role in military diplomacy field – Russian military expert

YEREVAN, JULY 14, ARMENPRESS. Russian military expert Ivan Konovalov, head of the Moscow-based Center for Strategic Trends Studies, says as long as the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border of the past two months is described as a “border conflict” or a “border misunderstanding”, which didn’t lead to large-scale military operations, the issue can be solved through diplomatic means.

The expert gave an interview to ARMENPRESS, commenting also on the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the new security challenges connected with this, including also for the member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). According to him, CSTO can play some role in this matter, but this role should be viewed in the military diplomacy field, not in terms of use of direct military force.

-Mr. Konovalov, Taliban militants occupy new territories in Afghanistan after the start of the process of withdrawing the US and NATO troops. In your opinion, why did the US side decide to withdraw the troops from Afghanistan, leaving the country to the terrorist groups, and secondly, what must be the position of Russia and the CSTO on the situation in Afghanistan, taking into account the instability on the border of Tajikistan, which is a CSTO member?

-The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan is connected with the decision of the US Administration, who came to the conclusion that their presence in Afghanistan is already nonsense as none of the goals announced 20 years ago has been fulfilled. Trump was also saying this that it is necessary to leave Afghanistan. Currently, this is already a fact as they are leaving. And this is definitely the defeat of the United States because now the situation is such that by the withdrawal of the US side Afghanistan is facing a power vacuum, and that territories are occupied by the Taliban. Moreover, the Islamic State organization, banned in Russia, is operating in Afghanistan. Although the Taliban and the Islamic State have hostile relations. Therefore, after the withdrawal of the US troops the situation will be approximately the following: the territories, which previously have been under the control of the so-called Northern Alliance, will most probably remain under the control of the Taliban. And there again will be a division of the country, and if the US side doesn’t assist the current authorities, the Taliban will take Kabul.

In such situation the actions of the Russian Federation are logical. As you know, the delegation of the Taliban visited Russia to find out its approaches. In its turn Russia wants to understand what are the approaches of the Taliban. They have announced that they do not want any problems in Central Asia, which is the most important issue for us.

However, we should not forget that the delegation that visited Russia represents one of the three main groups of the Taliban which do not have so good relations. That delegation was representing the group of the Taliban who are stationed in Qatar. Therefore, they are not so united, and Russia must carefully monitor this situation and see what are the contradictions in order to use it its favor.

Russia must do everything to keep the situation under its control, for that purpose the diplomatic method is being used. At the same time we have to take into account the fact that our 201st powerful military base is stationed in Tajikistan, and our air force military base is located in Kyrgyzstan. This is a very strong fact. Our military base in Tajikistan is the guarantor of the fact that it remains the main player and in case of negative development of the situation it will directly participate in the solution of that situation, including with the method of use of force. Of course, all agreements are in force.

-You mean the Russian troops, not the CSTO intervention?

-You know that the situation is quite complex, and the CSTO member states have a right to decide by themselves to participate in any process or not. Such decisions are adopted in the CSTO by the principle of consensus. But first of all, Tajikistan and Russia have an agreement on mutual help, and secondly, a number of Central Asian countries are a member of the CSTO, who are also concerned over this situation, and if there is a danger they will definitely provide military support for the solution of the issue. Helping Russia to extinguish the “fire” is also very important for them.

-In this context how would you comment on the recent statement of CSTO Secretary General Stanislav Zas according to which the current situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border after the recent illegal incursion of the Azerbaijani armed forces into Armenia’s territory is not a military aggression against Armenia, but is a “border incident?”

-In this case the situation is obvious. As long as the situation in Armenia, the South Caucasus is described as a border conflict, a border misunderstanding which didn’t lead to large-scale use of force, the problem is possible to solve through diplomatic means. Everything depends from where the “red line” would pass. In other words, if the situation becomes dangerous, of course, the CSTO will intervene. Here, however, the chief role belongs to Russia. And the possible CSTO role here should be viewed in the military diplomacy field, not in terms of use of a direct military force.

Interview by Aram Sargsyan

Editing and Translating by Aneta Harutyunyan