Armenia would face serious economic consequences if EAEU membership were suspended, intergovernmental council report says

A report prepared by representatives of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan on the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council has outlined the possible economic consequences for Armenia if a decision is taken to temporarily suspend the application of the EAEU Treaty to the country.

The report states that suspending Armenia’s membership of the Eurasian Economic Union would lead to a 15.6 per cent decline in its GDP, a 14.9 percentage-point increase in inflation and a 14.6 per cent reduction in consumption.

It says the price of gas supplied to Armenia would also rise from US$177.50 to US$300 per thousand cubic metres, an increase of 69 per cent.

The report notes that this figure is indicative and that the actual price could be higher depending on market conditions.

It also states that suspending Armenia’s EAEU membership would result in stricter labour migration conditions for Armenian citizens.

Customs controls and duties, full sanitary controls and taxation of goods would also be reinstated, according to the report.

The report says that, if a decision is taken to suspend Armenia’s EAEU membership, the legal regime established by the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union of 29 May 2014 would cease to apply to Armenia, its businesses and citizens for the duration of the suspension.

It states that suspending Armenia’s EAEU membership would lead to a 48.8 per cent decline in imports.

Total trade between Armenia and EAEU member states would fall by 55.6 per cent if its membership were suspended.

According to the report, exports of goods produced in Armenia would decline by 30–50 per cent, while re-exports would fall by more than 90 per cent.

Representatives of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan on the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council submitted the report on the possible consequences of suspending the application of the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union to Armenia.

An appeal addressed to the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, with the report attached, was sent to the Eurasian Economic Commission on 20 October 2026 for formal transmission to the council’s members—the leaders of the EAEU member states.

The report states that Armenia’s actions run counter to the obligation enshrined in Article 3 of the EAEU Treaty, under which member states must help create favourable conditions for the Union to perform its functions and refrain from measures that could jeopardise the achievement of its objectives.

At the same time, the document emphasises that the EAEU Treaty does not explicitly provide a mechanism allowing member states to unilaterally suspend its application to another member state.

In light of this, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan invoke universally recognised norms and principles of international law, particularly the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties.

According to the report’s authors, these legal grounds allow the four countries to consider adopting a joint decision temporarily suspending the application to Armenia of the EAEU Treaty and other international treaties forming part of the Union’s legal system.

The document states that such a decision could remain in force until a referendum is held in Armenia on whether the country should continue participating in the EAEU or join the European Union.