Expert Shahan Gantaharyan says Middle East developments may affect South Caucasus

Shahan Gantaharyan, the editor-in-chief of the Lebanese newspaper Azdak and an expert in international affairs, addressed the recent escalation of border tensions between Israel and Lebanon. He noted that Tel Aviv is not respecting the terms of the ceasefire that came into effect between Israel and Hezbollah on November 27, 2024. 

The expert also did not rule out the possibility that the situation in the Middle East could impact the South Caucasus.

In an interview with Armenpress, Gantaharyan discussed the situation in Lebanon and the Middle East. He pointed out that Israeli armed forces continue to strike Lebanese territory despite the ceasefire agreement between the parties. He emphasized “the ceasefire is not being respected by Tel Aviv”.

"It must be said that the ceasefire is not being respected in accordance with the agreed terms. Israel claims that missiles are being launched from the Lebanese territory, military movements are observed, and airstrikes, particularly southward, are being carried out. These strikes are not limited to the southern territories of Lebanon but also extend to the southern suburbs of the capital, Beirut."

"It can be said that the agreement, which came into effect between Israel and Hezbollah on November 27, 2024, regarding the withdrawal of Israeli armed forces from southern Lebanon within 60 days, has not yet been fulfilled. That 60-day period has long passed, but, in fact, Israeli forces continue to remain in the south of the country," Gantaharyan mentioned.

According to the expert, Israel justifies this by claiming that security in northern Israel has not yet been restored, the residents have not returned, and this is why Israeli troops have not withdrawn from Lebanese territories, including from 4-5 strategically important hills where Tel Aviv has established military posts.

"This is not limited to Lebanon. Israel has also resumed active military operations in Gaza and Syria, targeting military points and facilities. Israeli official media have stated that the airstrikes carried out in Syria are a message to Turkey. In addition, Tel Aviv accuses Ankara of supporting Iran, which provides material and financial assistance to Hezbollah over Turkey," he said.

“In this context, Israel declares that it will not tolerate the creation of hotbeds of tension in the border regions of its territory. This message from Israel also included a call for Turkish forces not to come too close to Israeli territories and not to establish military bases,” Gantaharyan noted.

Referring to the agreement of November 27, 2024, which stipulates that, along with the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, Lebanese troops should move south to ensure the security of local settlements, Gantaharyan noted that the Lebanese troops have indeed moved south, but Israeli forces have not yet completely left southern Lebanon.

"Lebanon has sent troops to the south. Now there are both Lebanese and Israeli troops there. The issue is that the clear timetable for the Israeli forces' withdrawal and the deployment of the Lebanese army in areas left by Hezbollah has not yet been published.

 However, it should be noted that international pressure is gradually increasing on the Israeli army. For example, in recent days, a U.S. delegate visited Lebanon and insisted that clear deadlines should be set for all these processes. This also applies to the disarmament of Hezbollah and the surrender of weapons," he noted.

Shahan Gantaharyan also addressed the resumption of military operations by the Israeli armed forces in the Gaza Strip, noting that Tel Aviv explains this not only by the presence of Israeli hostages held by Hamas.

"In a global sense, its goal is not only to change the demographic picture of the Gaza Strip, but also to change the regime. Let us not forget that, in parallel with the military operations, events are taking place both in Gaza and inside Israel: protests have begun, demanding a change of government in both Palestine and Israel to reach peace.

And if we look at this from a longer perspective, then Israel, by conducting operations on three fronts—in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza—aims to shatter and weaken Iran’s influence in those countries, which, by the way, has already happened, and Tehran’s influence has weakened in all three directions," the expert noted.

Shahan Gantaharyan also expressed the opinion that the events unfolding in the Middle East may have an impact on the situation in the South Caucasus.

"It should also be noted that Azerbaijan and Israel continue to deepen their cooperation in the military sphere, with Israel providing military equipment to Azerbaijan. All of this may also be related to the South Caucasus region, including the Armenian factor," Gantaharyan emphasized.

Earlier, it was reported that two people were killed and two more Syrian workers were injured as a result of an attack by Israeli military aircraft on the village of Zibqin in southern Lebanon.

Since October 2023, a border confrontation has been underway between Hezbollah and Israel in parallel with military operations in the Gaza Strip.

Since September 23, 2024, this confrontation escalated into a full-scale war, resulting in more than 4,000 deaths and 17,000 injuries in Lebanon. Despite a ceasefire agreement that came into effect on November 27, 2024, mutual accusations of ceasefire violations continue. 

Israel has not completed the withdrawal of its forces from southern Lebanon and continues to control five strategically important hills in the region.