Economy

7-8% growth in case of favorable conditions in 2024, forecasts Armenian economist

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7-8% growth in case of favorable conditions in 2024, forecasts Armenian economist

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 20, ARMENPRESS. The Armenian economy could grow in between 3 to 8 percent in 2024 depending on various factors, according to economist Tatul Manaseryan. Speaking at a press conference, Manaseryan, the Director of the Alternative Research Center, said that growth would comprise 7-8% in case of favorable conditions, and 3-4% in case of unfavorable ones.

He said that a number of contradictory trends could impact the Armenian economy in 2024.

“The main locomotive could be the utilization of the country’s competitive advantages, if the real opportunities arising from the creation of the free economic zone between Iran and the EEU are used, as well as further intensification of ties between Russia and other EEU countries. Effective management of the economy, as well as the use of the professional potential of the Armenian Diaspora, are no less important. As a result of possible positive changes in these directions we can forecast business [sic] activity growth between seven and eight percent. Otherwise, the maximum growth would seemingly be around three or four percent,” he said.

He pointed out the following trends in analyzing the economy: geopolitical factors, stronger domestic demand, remittance inflow, fiscal policy, the traditional growth in services, IT, real estate, finance and tourism sector (which could be insufficient without improvement in the real sector – industry and agriculture). As to foreign factors, he pointed out the processes in the Chinese economy, the Ukraine crisis, which could impact the Armenian currency. A lot would also depend on the employment and social status of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh who are now living in Armenia. Foreign policy and foreign economic policy could also affect growth, he said.

The Eurasian Development Bank has predicted 5,7% growth for 2024 in Armenia, while the IMF predicted up to 5% growth. The Armenian government seeks to achieve at least 7% growth.

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